Friday, November 4, 2022

Rain Chances Return, Wind Advisory In Place for Much of Saturday

Rain Chances Return:

After a fabulous 3-day stretch of sunshine and 70-degree temperatures, our attention now turns to our next rain chance and the strong winds that come along for the ride. Most of the morning commute aims to be dry, with the chance for a few scattered showers moving in shortly after sunrise. 

This activity looks to become a little more widespread as we inch towards the mid-day hours as a frontal boundary approaches the IL/WI border. Once this warm front moves into S. Wisconsin, it'll take the majority of the showers with it, resulting in a little break from the activity. The warm-up process today won't be as significant as the past couple of days, but most will manage to get back into the upper 60s, close to 70-degrees.  

Wind Advisory:

As a deepening area of low-pressure spirals into eastern Iowa Saturday morning, winds a few thousand feet above the surface (also known as the low-level jet) will intensify. As of a result, winds at ground-level will also be on the rise. 

Because of this, the National Weather Service (NWS) has placed all of our northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin counties under a WIND ADVISORY. This advisory will be in effect from 4AM-4PM Saturday. Winds throughout this time will be blowing out of the south and southwest, gusting between 45-55 mph. This will make travel a bit difficult for those who operate a high-profile vehicle and will likely blow around any loose objects in your yard.

As the associated cold front slides through Saturday morning, heavier downpours will be a possibility. From what it looks like, the potnetial  for severe weather remains very low. But the one component we'll have to keep an eye on is the position of the surface low and the location of it's frontal boundaries. This may bring the potential for a strong shower and or an isolated t-storm across southern and southeast Wisconsin.

With the amount of spin this storm system brings to our atmosphere, a low-end risk for a quick spin up tornado or two will be present. The timing of this severe threat would be early in the morning, mainly before the sun comes up. 

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has left the Stateline under a general or non-severe risk for thunderstorms. I'll be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast and to have multiple ways to receive warnings, should there be an opportunity for one to be issued. When it is all said and done, rainfall amounts for most will land in the .50" to 1.50" range, with the higher totals occurring to our north and west. 

Daylight Saving Time:

Guidance then ejects this potent storm system into the Great Lakes by Saturday evening, allowing dry conditions to settle in for Sunday. Remember, we turn our clocks back an hour Sunday morning as Daylight Saving Time comes to an end. 

This means that our sunrises starting Sunday will occur closer to 6:30AM. But that also means that our sunset times will be pulled back an hour as well, landing closer to 4:45AM. With southwest flow remaining in place, temperatures remain above-average with most landing in lower 60s. Slightly cooler air arrives early next week, placing Monday's highs in the upper 50s.

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