Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Few storms early, good portion of Illinois placed under heat advisory

Morning Storms?:

All eyes this Wednesday morning are on the cluster of showers and sub-severe thunderstorms that are tracking into western Wisconsin. The million dollar question is if they hold together and if so, how much of this cluster propagates south towards the region. Scenario #1 involves this cluster completely missing the Stateline area, with activity along the tailing cold front tracking through before lunchtime.

Scenario #2 involves this thunderstorm complex maintaining its strength, moving east-southeast towards the WI/IL border as it follows a pool of rich moisture and instability. Should this scenario occur, our severe threat would slightly increase, with damaging winds being the biggest concern. Right now, I'm leaning towards scenario #1. 

With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center left areas east of Monroe, Freeport, Forreston, Dixon, and Amboy under a level 1 Marginal Risk. Thunderstorm potential would then drop, leaving skies partly cloudy for the afternoon and evening. Smoke was the big issue with yesterday's warm-up, leaving highs in the upper 80s. However, with less smoke in our atmosphere, and with a west-southwest wind in place, temperatures should warm into the low 90s. Skies will continue to clear overnight, with temperatures falling into the upper 60s come sunrise Thursday. 

Hottest Stretch Ahead:

Heat Advisories stretch from northern Texas into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. So far, Whiteside County is the only county in our forecast area that has been placed under a Heat Advisory. 

But I'm sure as Thursday approaches, the National Weather Service will consider putting more of our region under this advisory.  

Thursday is to become the hottest day of the year as temperatures aim for the upper 90s. What will make matters worse is the climb in humidity levels, which would place heat indices near or above 100°.  

More of the same is expected for Friday.  If you plan to attend the Stephenson County Fair, the Lee County Fair, or plan to be outside in general, please implement heat safety. Drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks in the shade. A cold front Friday will not only bring another chance for thunderstorms, but also relief from this week's heat and humidity. Highs fall into the mid 80s Saturday, then low 80s for Sunday and Monday. High pressure builds behind the front, resulting in a drier weekend.

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