Hints of spring: Northern Illinois could see a multi‑day stretch of 50s

Even though Tuesday featured a cool northwesterly wind, it felt nice as the Rockford Airport came in with highs in the upper 40s. That was our third day this month with highs in the 40s. 

 

 

  

We take a small step backward in the temperature department as the colder air from yesterday's frontal passage sits overhead. Still, we can expect afternoon highs to land in the low 40s and since we have an area of high pressure sitting nearby, plenty of sunshine is on the table from start to finish.

 

  

Forecast models show clouds increasing overnight as a very weak system dives into the plains. If there was any chance for precipitation, it would be during the morning hours Thursday and more to the south and west of the Stateline. At this moment, we'll keep a very small chance with skies remaining mostly cloudy as we go into the afternoon. High temperatures should once again peak in the low 40s. 

 

So far in 2026, Rockford has observed three 50° days and they have all occurred in January. Two of them breaking a previous record high. 

 

 

  

We will likely add to that tally this weekend and next week as northern Illinois could see multiple days with highs in the 50s. Ridging over the central plains will supply us with this next batch of milder air, pushing afternoon highs into the 50s possibly Friday, but more than likely over the weekend. Overnight lows will end up closer to Rockford's average highs, dropping into the low 30s Saturday night and Sunday night, then into the upper 30s Monday night. 

Mild stretch continues with zero signs of Arctic chill returning

Despite high clouds floating overhead, Monday saw a quick climb in temperatures thanks to an organized and warm wind out of the south. 

That warm wind continues this morning as we await the arrival of our next cold front, leaving temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Forecast models bring said cold front through before mid-morning, swapping surface winds to the northwest.  

Despite the cooler winds, partial sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the low 40s for the third time this month. The first being last Friday (42° ) and of course we had 40° weather yesterday. Winds could gust up to 30 mph at times. 

Behind the departing cold front, high pressure settles into the central plains, allowing dry but also mild conditions to continue into the middle of the work week. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the upper 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon as a weak storm system tracks into the Midwest. Drier air from this area of high pressure may limit the intensity and eastward progression of whatever precipitation forms ahead of the surface low . However, we may see a few light snow showers or even a light rain/snow mix before clearing out Friday morning. If we were to see any sticking snow, it wouldn't amount to much more than a few tenths of an inch.

From there, weather headlines will quickly turn back to mild temperatures. Afternoon highs are expected to climb back into the low 40s Friday, then into the mid 40s both Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances remain quite low, though a very slim chance for rain exists late Saturday into Sunday. 

Milder air flows across northern Illinois as cold air remains locked up north

 

We continue to climb from the cold that has held strong across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin the last few weeks. Temperatures Monday afternoon warmed into the upper 30s and low 40s, with Rockford's high reaching 41 degrees, our second 40 degree day this month (last on was 42 on Friday).

Cloud cover continues to roll in ahead of a warm front currently draped across the Midwest. Behind the front temperatures have warmed into the 50s and 60s over parts of Iowa, and the 70s out in the Plains! While it won't get *that* warm locally, above average temperatures are expected through the week.

For the rest of Monday night skies will remain mostly cloudy as a warm front draws closer to the Stateline. We may see a sprinkle or two from the front, but most will remain dry. It will, however, keep our temperatures mild overnight with most locations remaining in the 30s. The warmer start will help temperatures rise back into the low 40s, despite a cold front sweeping through first thing Tuesday morning.

Northwest winds will increase, gusting at times 25-30 mph. This will keep chills in the 20s during the morning and then low to mid 30s for the afternoon. Skies will turn partly cloudy for the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the Midwest and Plains, paving the way for a mostly sunny sky Wednesday.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s, close to 40 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Drier air from high pressure will still be somewhat in control as a weak low-pressure system moves in across the Midwest. We may see a few light snow showers from this low mid-day Thursday before clearing out Friday morning. If we were to see any sticking snow, it wouldn't amount to much more than a few tenths of an inch. 

Northern Illinois continues its escape from January’s brutal deep freeze

A cold front Saturday morning put a brief hold on our mild stretch, limiting afternoon highs to the upper 20s Saturday, then low 30s Sunday. 

 

 

  

That brief hold ends today as winds stay warm ahead of our next warm front/cold front. Despite clouds being a bit more widespread today, afternoon highs will end up back in the low 40s. There could be a sprinkle or two late tonight as said cold front pushes in from the west. Otherwise, we can expect cloud cover to decrease as we go into Tuesday afternoon, allowing highs peaking in the low 40s.  

Precipitation from midweek on remain quite low as a high pressure system glides and stall over the Great Lakes region. Forecast models keep this high stagnant from Thursday to Sunday, which limits the amount of moisture that reaches the Stateline. 

 

  

There's a slim chance with a disturbance Thursday and then again on Saturday. However, precipitation amounts are highest across portion of Missouri as well as the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures during this stretch briefly cool back into the mid 30s by Thursday afternoon, but should recover back into the low 40s by the weekend. 
 

Mild pattern with limited precipitation chances this week

 Cloud cover limited temperatures to the low 30s Sunday afternoon, and we only may reach the upper 30s Monday afternoon. Thick clouds would limit temperatures from reaching 40, but any breaks in the clouds would allow temperatures to push into the low 40s. For now the forecast high is 42°.

A few sprinkles may be possible Monday evening into very early Tuesday morning, but we will likely remain dry through at least Wednesday. Our next better chance for precipitation arrives Thursday in the form of some light snow chances, but high pressure over the Great Lakes will prevent abundant moisture from working overhead. Any precipitation we do see looks to be light and scattered in nature as of now, unless the high pressure trends weaker.

A more active pattern may begin to develop toward the end of the week and next weekend, as more frequent precipitation chances may begin to work toward the area for the middle of February. This also comes with a warmer pattern, with a higher chance for above average temperatures according to the Climate Prediction Center's latest outlooks.

Above average temperatures and calm to start the week

 

Although we had a slight cooldown yesterday, temperatures look to climb back above freezing today and into the rest of the week. We'll see temperatures climb through the day into the mid 30's while clouds will stick around for most of the day with some intermittent sunshine.

 Into the next two days, temperatures will climb well above average into the low 40's which will give us a comfortable start to the week. Some other good news is that precipitation chances remain on the lower side, however a few isolated rain showers may be possible into the evening Monday night.

Temperatures then look to stay well above average into the end of the week and into next week with temperatures into the 40's and possibly into the 50's! Our upper-level jet stream pattern begins to become more active next week as well with a troughing pattern looking likely.

Quiet, mild pattern with more clouds than sun

 It was a chilly Saturday as high temperatures only reached back into the 20s under the influence of high pressure. But the milder trends will return next week, with a few more days reaching near or above 40 degrees.

Cloud cover could have a significant impact on the temperatures each day though. At the moment, cloud coverage Monday and Tuesday is expected to be around 70-80%, which would be considered a mostly cloudy sky. If clouds remain thicker around 90-100%, the potential high temperature may not quite be reached. An overcast sky can result in a 5° difference in temperature compared to even just a few breaks in the clouds.

At the moment, our forecast leans for a few breaks in the clouds which would promote highs in the low 40s Monday and Tuesday. But if clouds do not end up breaking at all, we could be limited to the upper 30s each day.

This milder pattern does not come with many precipitation chances. We could see a few spotty sprinkles or light rain showers Monday night into early Tuesday, but the large majority of the area should remain dry through Wednesday. A more active pattern will begin to develop late next week, bringing more favorable chances for precipitation, including a wintry mix.

Warming trends temporarily slowed with weekend chill

 It was a sunny end to the day Friday as high temperatures reached into the 40s for the first time since mid-January! Unfortunately, the recent warming trend will be temporarily halted this weekend behind Friday's cold front. Temperatures this evening will drop quickly as high pressure slides in. Overnight lows will end up within a few degrees of 10, while wind chills will drop down toward the low single digits for much of the night.

Saturday will start out sunny but cold as afternoon highs only reach back into the mid-20s. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the evening, with a few flurries possible overnight. Most of the moisture from this wave will pass North and East of Rockford, keeping the large majority of the area dry.

It won't take long for the milder air to filter back in. Sunday brings us back above average into the 30s with a mostly cloudy sky. Monday and Tuesday will be back in the 40s again. A few very isolated rain showers may develop nearby Monday evening into Tuesday but look to remain focused North and East of the area again. Overall, a quiet but milder pattern looks to settle in for much of next week.

Friday morning weather update

As we approach 5 a.m. this morning, most of our overnight wintry precipitation will continue to move off to our east. However, for those who were up early (or late) this morning, you may have heard some ice pellets/sleet falling outside while also seeing some light ice on surfaces. Temperatures will stay near freezing through the early morning so with any precipitation that did fall, make sure to keep an eye out for some slick spots on roadways and sidewalks.

As we look forward into the weekend temperatures will slightly drop into tomorrow as high pressure moves in at the surface. This will offer calmer conditions with a bit more sunshine tomorrow, but the warmer temperatures don't return until Sunday. As we move through Sunday an upper-level ridge of high pressure will develop over the central united states which will gradually warm temperatures into the week.

Temperatures will reach above average through next week while our daily high temperatures will be above freezing through all of next week! This will give us a nice warmup but even with warmer temperatures next week, precipitation chances will remain on the lower side. 
 
 

Back above freezing as unseasonable warmth arrives next week

 Rockford reached a high temperature of 36 Thursday afternoon, pushing above freezing for the first time in nearly 3 weeks! The 19 day streak of sub-freezing temperatures is the 15th longest on record and the longest streak since 2010!

We will take a brief break in the warming trend over the weekend behind Friday's cold front and associated wintry mix, but trends will be turning back "warmer" for much of next week. Milder air that had been previously locked away to the Southwest will surge our way, pushing temperatures into the 30s and 40s for a few days starting Sunday and Monday. Monday through Wednesday will be the warmest days in the near term, with all three days featuring highs in the 40s.

This pocket of milder air also comes with a bit more moisture, but not overly impressive rain chances. Aside from the wintry mix Thursday night and slim chance for flurries Saturday night, precipitation chances will be limited through at least Tuesday. A weaker low pressure system may try to develop nearby with better moisture overhead. With the warmer air, most of this would come down as a light rain.

Looking ahead to the middle of February, the "milder" pattern looks to continue with a 50-70% chance to see above average temperatures between the 11th and 15th. Average highs by mid-February are closer to the low 30s. By February 28th, the average high is nearly 40 degrees!

Light wintry mix possible late Thursday night

 

A quick moving clipper system will sweep across the Midwest and Great Lakes late Thursday night bringing with it a chance for wintry precipitation, including a small window of a little freezing drizzle/rain.

Temperatures Thursday warmed into the mid-30s, with a few spots hitting close to 40 degrees - despite the thick cloud cover overhead. A breezy southwest wind has helped to warm temperatures into the mid-30s with a few spots getting close to 40 degrees! A breezy southwest wind has helped keep a little chill in the air with wind chills staying in the 20s. Clouds remain overhead tonight as a push of warm air arrives from the west. This warmer air aloft will approach the freezing mark, but surface temperatures will remain just below freezing. The end result of this will be a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle, mixing in with a few snow showers after Midnight.

Significant ice accumulations are not expected this evening but there could be just enough of a glaze of ice to create slippery conditions on untreated surfaces such as parking lots, sidewalks, side streets, etc. With this in mind, travel for the Friday morning commute could be a little slick and you are urged to use caution and give yourself a little extra time during the morning commute.

Temperatures will warm into the mid-30s but an increasing north wind, gusting around 35 mph, will push temperatures down during the afternoon and evening. Overnight lows Friday night will drop into the single digits with wind chills falling into the single digits below zero Saturday morning.

Scattered snow, increasing wind on tap for week's end

Our weather pattern gets a little more unsettled for the final days of the work week. 

Beginning with clipper system #1 which is scheduled to slide through today. With it will come to potential for a few flurries and snow showers, especially before the mid-morning hours. 

Those who live to the north and east of Rockford will have a better chance at seeing the light snow stick to the surface. Be on the lookout for slick spots. Skies will stay mostly cloudy for the afternoon as southwest winds increase during the evening. The highest our gusts will get today is 25 mph. This will help push temperatures into the low 30s for the first time in nearly three weeks!

Forecast models then show temperatures hugging the 30° mark tonight but may end up slightly warmer just a few thousand feet above. As the next clipper system pushes in early Friday, we could see the chance for a very light mix to occur, mixing in with a few light snow showers during that time. 

 

  

High temperatures will be achieved early in the day, warming into the upper 30s. Temperatures from there will drop during the afternoon and evening following a second, and slightly stronger, cold front. This will take overnight lows down into the single digits Friday night. Of course, wind chills will once again become a factor as winds pick up quickly out of the north and northwest following Friday's frontal passage. Expect values to wind up near, if not just slightly below, 0° by Saturday morning.

Light snow moves into northern Illinois Thursday morning

 

Sun-filled skies continued once again Wednesday afternoon which helped take our temperatures from the single digits above, and below, zero this morning into the mid and upper 20s this afternoon. While still below average and below freezing, the sunshine and light wind made it comfortable early February afternoon.

Clear skies will continue to remain clear through the evening which will allow our temperatures to drop back into the low teens. Increasing cloud cover will halt the drop further, causing temperatures to hold steady - or even rise - through Thursday morning. Combined with the increase in cloud cover will also be a warmer air mass. This will arrive with a warm front late in the afternoon Thursday.

Light snow will occur as both the warm front and low-pressure system move in from the west and northwest, mainly after daybreak Thursday morning. It won't be much with most only seeing a few flurries to a dusting locally. Those along and east of I-39 have the better chance for seeing light snow stick to the ground, west of there may only be a few flurries. Skies will stay mostly cloudy for much of Thursday afternoon as southwest winds increase during the evening. This will help push temperatures into the low 30s for the first time in nearly three weeks!

Temperatures will remain close to the 30-degree mark Thursday night but could be slightly warmer just a few thousand feet above. As the next system arrives early Friday morning, we could see the chance for a very light mix to occur, mixing in with a few light snow showers during that time. Temperatures will warm into the mid-30s but then begin to drop during the afternoon and evening following a second, and slightly stronger, cold front. This will take us down into the low teens Friday night. Wind chills will also be a factor with an increasing northerly wind Friday pushing values down to around, if not just slightly below, zero degrees Saturday morning.

Any snow that comes down between Thursday morning and Friday afternoon won't be much, generally around a dusting up to half an inch with most occurring along and east of I-39.  

Back‑to‑back cold fronts brings temperature swings into the weekend

Skies are clear and winds are very light, meaning it is noticeably colder this morning. Temperatures and wind chill values for most Stateline locales are sitting close to or even below zero.  

 

 

  

Though we can expect more sunshine today, winds will be light out of the north and northeast, limiting our warm up to the upper 20s. 

 

 

  

Clouds will increase overnight as the first of two cold fronts sinks down from the north. With the front will also be the potential for flurries and snow showers, primarily before midday. The rest of the day will be mostly cloudy with highs in the low 30s. Even with a stronger cold front passing through the early stage of Friday, highs will end up in the upper 30s. 

  

The colder air from Friday's frontal passage will arrive Saturday, with the coldest air being focused across the Great Lakes and the northeast. This will leave highs in the mid 20s. 

This cooldown will be very brief however as a change in wind will occur as we go into next week. Winds will be more out of the southwest after a warm front pushes thorough Monday, pushing highs in the upper 30s, then low 40s Tuesday afternoon. 

Up and down pattern with few snow chances ahead

 A few weak systems will bypass the area Thursday and Friday, bringing a brief warm-up and a few light snow showers. The first system arrives Thursday morning, with the surface low pressure passing across the Great Lakes to our Northeast. A few light snow showers or flurries may be possible Thursday morning, moving out by early afternoon.

The second low pressure system will follow a very similar track across the Great Lakes, keeping the bulk of accumulating snow to our Northeast again. A few flurries or light snow showers will be possible again with this system, mainly centered around Thursday night through daybreak Friday. A stray flurry or two may be possible Friday afternoon as colder air begins to filter in, but the accumulating snow potential will wind down by daybreak Friday morning.

All told, most in the Stateline may not even get an inch of snow in total between the two systems. Highest totals will be focused to the Northeast along the track of the respective low-pressure systems, while much of the Stateline region will be left on the drier side.

While these systems are passing through, we will see a milder pattern as high temperatures push into the 30s Thursday and Friday. That comes with an increasing wind, with gusts pushing 15-25 mph out of the Southwest on Thursday. Northwest gusts of 25-35 mph may be realized on Friday as the colder air filters in. Saturday will not feature much wind, but high temperatures will be back in the 20s.