Visibility was a little lower earlier in the afternoon but has improved some as of 4pm. The chance for light
The first week of meteorological spring kicked off on a pleasant note, featuring plenty of sun and afternoon highs in the upper 40s. Today brings a change, with more cloud cover drifting in and the chance for a spotty shower or two. Combined with a light wind out of the northeast, these factors will limit afternoon highs to the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow looks slightly milder, though cloud cover will remain in place as a weak surface low slides to our south.
Rain chances will increase Wednesday night as the first of two storm system approaches. This one will be the weaker of the two, providing us with a scattered batch of showers into Thursday.
Tornadoes are among the most powerful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, capable of transforming calm skies into destructive forces within minutes.
Forming from a rotating thunderstorm known as a supercell, these rapidly rotating columns of air extend from the thunderstorm base to the ground and depending on the atmospheric conditions, can vary in strength, size, and duration.
How do we classify or rate tornadoes? Experts use the Enhanced Fujita Scale. A scale based on damage indicators that ranges from EF-0 (65-85mph) to EF-5 (201+mph). There also is a EF-U category and that is when a tornado touches down but doesn't produce any damage indicators.
Understanding tornado terminology is essential into recognizing threats and responding appropriately when severe weather strikes.
WATCH: When a tornado watch is issued, this is when the atmospheric conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form.
WARNING: When the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning for a certain storm, this means a tornado has been spotted or detected by radar. Take immediate action by seeking shelter!
EMERGENCY: This is the highest level of tornado warning issued by the National Weather Service and is ONLY used for the most life-threatening situations. It is designed to prompt immediate, decisive action, emphasizing the urge to seek shelter.
When a tornado threatens your area, the safest places are those that put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. Ideally, a basement is the best place to take shelter. However, if the building you are in doesn't have a basement, look for an interior hallway, bathroom, or closet.
These alerts are issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) through its network of local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). Each office is responsible for a specific group of counties.
NWS Chicago: McHenry, Boone, Winnebago, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb County.
NWS Quad Cities: Stephenson, Jo-Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside County.
NWS Milwaukee: Green, Rock, and Walworth County
Skies will remain mostly cloudy Tuesday, but despite that temperatures should be able to warm into the mid-40s. Skies will clear Tuesday night allowing temperatures to fall back close to 30 before warming back into the 50s for the remainder of the week.
It's that time of the year once again - when we pause to review the key components of severe weather and discuss how to stay safe when strong to severe storms are threatening your area.
Of course, severe weather can occur at any point in the year if the atmospheric setup is right. That being said, there are two periods on the calendar when the threat for severe weather is typically highest across northern Illinois. Our primary severe season occurs in the spring - typically April, May, and June followed by a secondary season in the fall.
Severe thunderstorms can also happen at any point in the day, but the most favored window is between 3PM-10PM. But once we move into the evening and overnight hours, things can get even more dangerous. Nighttime severe weather is harder to spot, people are settling in or already asleep, and threats like strong winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding become a lot more hazardous as visibility and awareness is much lower. It's a big reason why we emphasize staying weather aware and have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings, even when the sun goes down.
That is why it is important to remember the four key steps: plan, practice, monitor, and act. Before any threat for severe weather arrives, make sure you've created a safety plan and practice it - whether that be at home, school, or at work. Make sure your severe weather kit is up to date as well, stocked with things like snacks, water bottles, flashlights, extra batteries, and clothes like closed-toed shoes.
Once the threat for severe weather arises, keep up with the latest updates through the First Warn Weather App, through Eyewitness News broadcasts, and a NOAA weather radio. Staying informed gives you valuable time to reach. And when a warning is issued or strong to severe storms are moving in, don't wait- act immediately and get to your shelter.
After a weekend that brought slightly chilly highs in the upper 30s, milder weather is set to take over as we head meteorological spring. With it however will come several opportunities for rainfall.
Today will be dry and pleasant, with highs climbing into the mid to possibly upper 40s.
Clouds will gather up this evening into tonight as the first of many systems pushes in. Dry conditions will hold tight until about midnight, possibly into the early stage of Tuesday morning. After about 2AM-3AM, isolated light showers are expected to filter in from the west. At first, a shallow layer of cold air may allow for a few brief patches of freezing rain, though the expectation is for any mix to quickly turn to plain rain before mid-morning Tuesday.
Several more storm systems are on the table between Wednesday and early Saturday, resulting in the higher potential for rainfall locally. Next highest chance will arrive Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as a weak surface low wobbles in from the southwest. A better chance for more widespread rainfall will accompany a slightly stronger low and it's associated warm front Friday into Friday night.
This of course would be where the highest chance for flash flooding would end up.
The first week of meteorological spring will start out with some sunshine, but clouds and more widespread rain potential will fill in over the course of the week. We will not see much cloud cover Sunday night into Monday morning, allowing temperatures to quickly warm from the low 20s to the mid-40s by Monday afternoon. Thicker clouds filter in by evening ahead of the first of several weather systems.
We will remain dry through about 12AM-3AM Tuesday morning, but isolated and light rain will begin to develop before daybreak Tuesday. Initially, there may still be just enough cold air in place to cause a few patches of freezing rain, but this will quickly flip over to just liquid rain by morning.
Coverage of showers will be a bit higher late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, with a few pockets of steadier rain. There will be several dry hours Tuesday afternoon and evening, but it will remain damp with some spotty drizzle mixed in. Temperatures will struggle to reach as warm as they were Monday considering the added cloud cover and spotty rain.
More widespread potential for rain arrives Wednesday and again Friday with stronger passing waves overhead. Each of these could bring some pockets of steady to heavy rain with a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Some drier windows between systems will be centered around Wednesday morning and Thursday afternoon. In total through Saturday morning, rainfall may amount to around an inch for most in Northern Illinois. There may be a sharp cutoff with under a half inch for some in Wisconsin and the most abundant rain remaining across Central Illinois. Temperatures will continue to rise, particularly with Friday's passing system bringing afternoon highs up near 60°!
A warmer and wetter pattern change is on the way for much of next week. The upper level flow will turn to come out of the Southwest, pushing a much warmer and moisture-filled air mass our direction. The most abundant moisture begins to set in Monday night into Tuesday, when our potential for steady rain showers will begin. The map below shows our "precipitable water" values, which is a measure of how much water vapor there is in a vertical column of air. When PW values reach an inch or higher, that indicates some very rich moisture, especially for early March standards.
Even meager forcing will be able to shake out some of that moisture in the form of scattered rain showers beginning Monday night or Tuesday morning. With a little bit of cold air still in place, there is a low-end chance for some of this precipitation early Tuesday to fall in the form of light wintry mix. But the bulk of it will come down as rain with temperatures steadily climbing at the surface and in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere. Surface temperatures will reach the upper 40s to 50s starting Wednesday.
The coverage of rain shown above for Tuesday afternoon is fairly scattered, with around 40-60% of the area seeing rain at any given time. We will see similar coverage of rain continue into the middle of the week, including Wednesday and Thursday. There will still be many dry hours through the week, but the main window for steady rain in the near-term looks to be Monday night into Tuesday. Two more systems will pass later in the week, with lesser confidence on timing between Wednesday-Thursday then Friday-Saturday.
Several of these systems could bring some broad soaking rainfalls over the Midwest and Ohio River Valley through the course of the week. Heaviest rain looks to be displaced mainly across Missouri into Central and Southern Illinois/Indiana, with some locations possibly seeing 2-4" of rain next week! Locally in Northern Illinois, projections give us around a 50/50 chance to see around an inch through the course of the week.
After reaching the mid-60s Friday, it will be a much more winter-like weekend with highs in the 30s and scattered chances for snow showers. As a broad area of cooler air spreads Southward from the Northern Plains, a narrow axis of moisture will intersect it, developing some snow showers.
The steadiest of these snow showers will be centered along and North of highway 20 in far Northern Illinois up through Southern Wisconsin, but a few light snow showers may be possible as far South as I-88 or even I-80. The timing of snow will be mainly between late morning and early evening.
In total, up to 1-2" may come down across parts of Southern Wisconsin and far Northern Illinois, with a sharp gradient to little/no accumulation further South of Highway 20 and I-88. Impacts to roadways will be somewhat limited due to the warm ground from the 60-degree highs the day before. However, a few slick spots will be possible as temperatures drop into the low 20s and teens Sunday morning.
Another passing system will keep the chill going through Sunday and bring another narrow axis snow showers Sunday night into Monday. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will likely limit how much snow may reach this far North, keeping the majority if not all of the snow South of I-80 and into Central Illinois. The large majority of the Stateline will remain dry between Sunday and Monday afternoon.
A pattern change is on the way toward the middle and end of next week. A more Southwesterly flow aloft will force more moisture and warmth our direction, leading to increasing rain chances the later and later into next week you go. While it will not be raining the entire time, pockets of soaking rains with over 1-2" of rain may be possible across parts of Central and Southern Illinois. The Northward extent of the beneficial rainfall is still uncertain this far out. It also comes with a subtle warm up, as temperatures return to the 40s and 50s by Wednesday and Thursday.
A much milder air mass has pushed temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the Stateline as of 2PM, very warm for late February standards! But this has not come with much moisture, as dew point temperatures are still sitting below 30° across the area. As a result, relative humidity is around 20-30% for many.
Wind gusts have not been all that strong but may still push 25+ mph at times this afternoon, mostly from the West-Southwest then West-Northwest. While not strong enough for substantial fire danger, this will be strong enough to promote an elevated brush fire risk. Be sure to avoid outdoor burning this afternoon!
Yesterday turned out to be a bit more comfortable, with partial sunshine with highs in the low 40s. The warming trend continues today, and Rockford could log its fourth 60-degree day of 2026.
However, as has been the case for much of the week, gusty winds will accompany today's warm up. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible, especially this afternoon as a cold front approaches.
After this evening's frontal passage, winds take a turn to the north, ushering in much cooler air for Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs will run 5 to 10 degrees below average, topping out in the low 30s.
With the cooler temperatures this weekend comes a more active stretch of weather, driven by a pair of clipper systems. The first is scheduled to pass through during the day Saturday with the second taking a more southerly track, pushing through central Illinois Sunday night into Monday.
Locales that sit along and south of highway 20 may see a scattered batch of snow resulting in a dusting to 1". Snow could start falling as early as 8-9AM, with chances staying put for much of the afternoon. As of right now, impacts and accumulations with clipper system #2 look minor thanks to the system's southerly track. But again, keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend as any bump to the north would heighten snow chances locally.
Our recent cool and somewhat dry pattern will flip on its head as we head into the beginning of March, otherwise known as meteorological spring. In the upper levels, the jet stream will turn to a Southwest flow, pushing warmer and moist air our direction beginning around mid-next week.
This will bring a steady rise in precipitation chances, particularly beginning Wednesday night. Thursday into next weekend will be increasingly favorable for higher coverage of potential precipitation with the higher moisture moving our direction. By late-week, each day will feature at least a scattered chance for liquid rain, particularly Thursday into the weekend.
This pattern change is also supported by the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. Their forecast gives us a 50-70% chance to see above average precipitation between next Wednesday into the following weekend, or March 4th-8th. Current models have been trending up, giving us a better and better chance to see more than an inch of rain now through March 8th. Any rainfall we see will greatly help with growing drought conditions across the Stateline, as we have been very dry to start 2026.
Strong winds have been a big story line in the weather department the past few days, and they'll continue to be a key story as we approach the weekend.
Similar to yesterday, winds won't be as strong as the day prior. However, with a "bubble" of high pressure sliding to the east of the region, winds will blow more out of the southwest today. That, along with a partly cloudy sky will allow high temperatures to surge out of the 30s and into the low 40s.
Warm, Windy Friday:
Temperatures Friday morning will end up warmer, landing in the upper 20s. With the milder beginning, increasing southwesterly wind, and partial sun, the stage is set for an unseasonably warm afternoon with highs hovering around the 60°. IF we are able to hit that mark, it would be the 4th time this year that Rockford has observed 60° weather.
Now, winds will pack a punch to round out the work week as a cold front approaches. At times, we could see winds upwards of 35 mph. This wind will change to the north and northeast once the cold front sweeps through, resulting in a cooler weekend. Temperatures will fall back into the low 30s Saturday and may even struggle to exit the 20s on Sunday.
