A few storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening

 

While it's nothing set in stone just yet, there is a risk for a few thunderstorms in northern Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening. The higher risk remains just to our south downstate across central Illinois and Indiana. But a few isolated stronger storms could approach our southern counties by Thursday evening.

Showers moving in Tuesday evening will remain light, but a rumble of thunder or two after Midnight is possible as both low pressure and a cold front approach from the west. The low will lift to our northwest, holding temperatures close to 50 degrees overnight! This will help springboard us into the low 60s Wednesday afternoon.

A second system will approach northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin from the southwest Thursday, drawing yet another warm front north into the Stateline during the afternoon and evening. How far the front lifts north will determine just how warm our temperatures get for the afternoon, but I think it'll come close enough to at least get us back into the upper 50s, if not at 60 degrees. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could develop as early as the afternoon along the warm front, but a cold front moving across west-central Illinois will likely fire off more scattered thunderstorm activity towards Thursday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has most of central and east-central Illinois and Indiana highlighted under a 'Slight' risk which means scattered strong to severe storms are possible, while a 'Marginal' risk extends up near I-88 in northern Illinois as a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. But the coverage of any storm activity this far north will depend on just how far north the warm front makes it, and if we end up within the system's narrow 'warm sector'. If that remains to our south, then the chance for thunderstorms will remain south as well. But if even a small portion of the warm sector moves into northern Illinois, then at least part of the region could be dealing with an isolated strong storm or two.

Early season storm set-ups can be a little tricky as even just a change or two in temperature or dew point can mean the difference in storms or no storms. So, as we approach Thursday just make sure you remain weather aware and updated on the forecast.