Slowly thawing out this week while snow chances remain slim

Winter has been somewhat split down the middle in terms of above vs. below average days. For the longest time however, it seemed the below-average stretch that we saw during the second half of January was never going to end. 

I bring positive news this week. One, we aren't going to be see as much Arctic air spill southward, meaning temperatures won't be as extremely low. And second, snow chances remain relatively low.  

Aside from a few isolated flurries this morning and overnight tonight, the first half of the work week will be dry thanks to a high pressure system dipping down into the midsection of the lower 48. 

Afternoon highs will end up in the upper 20s today, then back down into the low 20s for Tuesday as winds turn more to the north and northeast. Expect overnight lows in the teens tonight, then single digits as we head into Wednesday morning.  

Improvements continue into week's end as afternoon highs end up in the low 30s. Typically at the start of February, Rockford's average high is 30°.  The one uncertainty however is the timing of the strong cold front that forecast models show pushing through late this week into the weekend. 

The American model (GFS) brought the front through overnight into Thursday whereas the European model (EURO) brought the front through Friday night into Saturday. The timing of the front will play a key role into how quick we are to cool either before the weekend or as we enter Saturday. This will be hashed out in the days to come. Forecast models also didn't have a good handle on temperatures towards the end of the weekend as the GFS was much cooler than the EURO. For the time being, I left high temperatures for Saturday in the low 20s, with low 30s in place for Sunday.