Much needed soaking rain

It was a healthy dose of rain that came down Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Over a 24 to 36 hour period, many places like Rockford and points east and southeast picked up over an inch of rain.  Many of our weather watchers also reported receiving close to, if not over, an inch of rain.  The best part about it was it came over a 24 hour period so the flooding threat was very low.  Much of the rain was able to soak right into the ground, which was a very good thing considering the ground needed it.

Unfortunately, areas west and northwest of Rockford didn't receive as much rainfall with lesser amounts found from Janesville to Monroe and out towards Savanna.   The image on the left is a radar estimated precipitation map.  You can clearing see where the heaviest of rain fell in north-central and northeast Illinois.  There were even some cities in McHenry and Lake counties that received nearly two to three inches of rainfall!  There were actually flood watches earlier Wednesday morning for parts of those counties.  Now, the rain has subsided with only a few sprinkles left going into the afternoon.

Incoming system will bring rain, but not as much as Wednesday morning

A cold front will be quick to move in Thursday as the low pressure that brought over an inch and a half of rain to areas southeast of Rockford moves into Michigan later this afternoon.  This next system, however, won't have nearly as much moisture to work with in the atmosphere so we're not expecting as much rainfall, although a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out midday.  Also, this next system is coming in so quickly behind Wednesday morning's low, that the atmosphere won't have much time to recharge before the cold front moves through.  This, combined with limited forcing from the jet stream will keep the storm threat on the lower side.  After the front passes, a much more comfortable air mass moves in Thursday night where a few overnight lows could dip into the upper 40's by Friday morning.

Drought update

Last Thursday, the National Drought Mitigation Center released the drought monitor.  Overall, Illinois and Wisconsin have been doing fairly well, however, drier than normal conditions have returned to central and west-central Illinois.  Now, this does not include the latest rain we received on Saturday night and does not include the rainfall we're expected to receive today and Wednesday.  Those events will be included in the latest drought monitor that will be released this Thursday morning.

Even though the rain may have put a damper on some of our outdoor plans, the ground has been a little dry and we're currently running a 0.63 deficit for the month of June.  Not good considering we're only 10 days into the month.  Every little bit of rain does help even though we likely won't add up much from what we're receiving this morning.  Steadier rain will come later tonight and Wednesday morning with low pressure.

Midweek showers

We'll see a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall the weather pattern doesn't support much in the way of thunderstorms, at least here.

High pressure will continue to dominate the skies Monday afternoon as a cut-off low spirals through the central Plains.  Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee will be the areas to watch later today as thunderstorms fire up along a stationary boundary.  Other than a few more clouds today, skies will remain dry through this evening. 

The chance for rain will increase from south to north through Illinois Tuesday afternoon reaching the Stateline by Tuesday evening.  The heaviest of the rain will remain further downstate, but a few tenths of an inch of rain will be possible in Northern Illinois with lesser amounts falling north of the Wisconsin/Illinois border.  A couple rumbles of thunder may be heard Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but severe weather is not expected.

Skies will dry Wednesday afternoon with the next chance for rain coming in Thursday.  After that, skies will stay dry through the start of the weekend.

AirFest Weekend Forecast: Not looking all that bad

There are so many things going on this weekend, but all eyes will be to the skies Saturday and Sunday.  Not only watching the fighter jets wow and dazzle the audience at the Chicago Rockford International Airport, but also watching the potential for storms.  While threat is there for a few showers and storms this weekend, it won't be a complete washout. 

Temperatures Saturday will climb close to 80 degrees under partly cloudy skies.  An upper level low will slide in from the southwest likely Saturday evening and Saturday night bringing a few showers and storms through Sunday morning.  Most of those should be out of here by late Sunday morning.  A few more waves moving within the jet stream Sunday afternoon could bring scattered showers and storms Sunday, but again, it doesn't look like an all day washout.  Overall, we'll likely see more dry hours than rainy ones this weekend. 

Update on the storm potential Tuesday night and Wednesday morning

Thunderstorm activity looks to ramp up this afternoon in Nebraska before moving into central and southern Iowa later this evening. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for South Dakota and Nebraska as ongoing storms from Tuesday morning will continue to fester through the day.  Individual, supercell storms will likely form in the Plains along and ahead of a warm front and low pressure system.  As the evening progresses, those storms will more than likely form into a cluster of storms known as an MCS, or Mesoscale Convective System, as they move into western and southern Iowa. 

Through much of the day Tuesday, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will remain dry and sunny.  Clouds will gradually increase from west to east through the afternoon with our storm threat increasing between Midnight and 2am.  The warm front and low pressure system will track through southern Iowa and into west-central Illinois by Wednesday morning.  South of the warm front is where the greatest instability will reside and likely where the storms will track tonight as they take a turn to the southeast towards Davenport, IA and follow both interstates 88 and 80.  The cluster of storms will feed off of the instability to the south allowing them to maintain the severe threat into Wednesday morning.  While the instability further north will be there, it won't be as great as what it is to the south.  Thunderstorms containing heavy rain and likely some stronger wind gusts will be possible through early Wednesday morning north of I-88, but the greatest severe potential should stay just to the south with a high probability of significant wind damage in west-central and central Illinois. This is the area that the Storm Prediction Center has outline for a moderate risk for severe weather.

Going into the afternoon, we'll keep a close eye on the development of storms in the Plains.  A slight shift to the north would mean a higher chance for some of those stronger winds.

Active weather pattern kicks off the beginning of Meteorological Summer

Widely scattered storms will continue Sunday evening before decreasing in coverage late tonight with the setting of the sun.  However, we're currently tracking a strong line of storms moving into western Iowa that, if they hold their own, could move into N. IL and S. WI during the overnight.  They will have likely weakened some, but the possibility does exist for storms to continue into Monday morning.

Moisture will still be in place Monday and with a few upper level waves of energy passing through, this will keep the storm threat going during the morning before a brief break is felt midday.  Additional storms may fire back up along a cold front Monday afternoon and evening, and if they do, those also have the potential to be strong to severe.  Skies will clear behind the cold front Tuesday, but we won't feel much cooling.

Another low pressure system moving in from the west late Tuesday afternoon will bring a substantial severe weather threat across the central Plains.  That threat will then shift east with time Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as the low moves through Iowa closer towards the Mississippi River.  The storm threat for us will ramp up late Tuesday night and into the first half of Wednesday.  While the potential does exist for strong to severe storms, the placement of the warm front will be critical in where exactly storms will move.  If the warm front remains to our south then the severe weather threat will remain south as well.  If, however, the front is bumped a little further to our north then the threat for severe weather will shift north in N. IL and S. WI.  Once that system passes, the weather will turn quiet until late this upcoming weekend.