Thunderstorm activity looks to ramp up this afternoon in Nebraska before moving into central and southern Iowa later this evening.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for South Dakota and Nebraska as ongoing storms from Tuesday morning will continue to fester through the day. Individual, supercell storms will likely form in the Plains along and ahead of a warm front and low pressure system. As the evening progresses, those storms will more than likely form into a cluster of storms known as an MCS, or Mesoscale Convective System, as they move into western and southern Iowa.
Through much of the day Tuesday, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will remain dry and sunny. Clouds will gradually increase from west to east through the afternoon with our storm threat increasing between Midnight and 2am. The warm front and low pressure system will track through southern Iowa and into west-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. South of the warm front is where the greatest instability will reside and likely where the storms will track tonight as they take a turn to the southeast towards Davenport, IA and follow both interstates 88 and 80. The cluster of storms will feed off of the instability to the south allowing them to maintain the severe threat into Wednesday morning. While the instability further north will be there, it won't be as great as what it is to the south. Thunderstorms containing heavy rain and likely some stronger wind gusts will be possible through early Wednesday morning north of I-88, but the greatest severe potential should stay just to the south with a high probability of significant wind damage in west-central and central Illinois. This is the area that the Storm Prediction Center has outline for a
moderate risk for severe weather.
Going into the afternoon, we'll keep a close eye on the development of storms in the Plains. A slight shift to the north would mean a higher chance for some of those stronger winds.
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