Wednesday Evening Severe Weather Update

12:55am Update: A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Ogle and Lee Counties until 4:30am.

12:30am Update: Severe T-Storm Warning for NW Lee until 1:15am. Quarter-sized hail and 60mph winds possible. Warning includes the city of Dixon.

11:50am Update: Flash Flood Warning for Jo Daviess County until 5:45am.

10:55pm Update: A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for southeastern Lee County until 4:30am. Be alert for flooding roadways.

6:30pm Update: Severe T-Storm Warning for central DeKalb County until 7:15pm. Quarter-sized hail and 60mph winds possible.

5:45pm Update: Storms in Ogle County are not severe, but capable of nickel-sized hail and 50mph winds.

Severe T-Storm Warning for Jo Daviess until 6:15pm. Storm moving east at 20mph .Half dollar-sized hail possible.

Wednesday Weather Update

Many of us remained pretty quiet Tuesday night.  Storms fired up near the Wisconsin/Illinois border late in the evening, but most of the storm activity remained north in Wisconsin and back out west in Iowa.  So, why was that?

Well, we basically had a lid on the atmosphere last night.  The surface warm front had shifted north into Wisconsin which basically made the atmosphere too stable, because there were warm temperatures at the surface but also up above, for thunderstorms to form in northern Illinois.  While you need the warmth at the surface to build instability, temperatures up above need to be a little cooler for air to rise.  When the air from the surface rises into an air mass that is at the same, or warmer, temperature the air can't rise anymore.

This morning, however, part of that cap weakened which was what allowed storms to intensify in southern Wisconsin.  Had the cap weakened a bit further south into Illinois, the storms we had this morning could have been a bit stronger. 

The rain will be out of here by Noon with skies already beginning to clear back west in Iowa.  If clouds continue to thin to the east, there remains a greater probability of thunderstorms firing back up this afternoon and evening along old boundaries from this morning's storm activity, but also along a warm front that will have shifted a little further south into Illinois.  The slight risk for severe weather remains for the area and should storms fire back up later today, strong winds, hail and heavy rain are going to be the primary concerns.

Tuesday Evening Severe Weather Update

12:45pm Update: Severe T-Storm Watch has been canceled for Carroll, Whiteside, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb Counties.

12:30am Update: Nothing much to talk about at the moment, but we'll keep an eye on storms currently in IA/MN/SD. It looks like they will start tracking east and eventually roll through the Stateline overnight, bringing with them the chance for a few more strong storms and some potential flooding.

The Storm Prediction Center is warning that flash flooding could be a major issue for southern Wisconsin tonight if storms track the way they're expected. Stay tuned for more updates as we get them.







11:05pm Update: A Severe T-Storm Warning is in effect for northwestern Jo Daviess until 11:15pm and southeastern Walworth until 12:00am. Quarter-sized hail possible with Jo Daviess storm. Quarter-sized hail and 60mph winds possible with Walworth storm.

10:30pm Update: A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect for the entire Stateline until 4:00am.

10:25pm Update: Severe T-Storm Warning for McHenry (WI) until 11:00pm. Quarter-sized hail and 60mph winds possible.

10:05pm Update: Severe T-Storm Warning for Jo Daviess until 10:45pm. Quarter-sized hail possible.

Original Post: Things are quiet at the moment, but the threat of severe weather is expected to return to the Stateline Tuesday evening.

Storms are expected to fire up along a front to our south this evening, starting around 7:00pm. Storm chances will continue through the overnight.

The Stateline is currently under a Slight Risk for severe storms for Tuesday night. The main threats will be damaging winds and possible flash flooding from heavy rains, much like Monday night. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but isn't the main concern.

Stay tuned to WTVO 17, FOX 39, MyStateline.com, and the First Warn Weather Blog all night for updates on this developing weather situation. -BA

Storm photos and Tuesday weather update

Just a few of the many storm photos we received from Tuesday morning.  Thank you for the pictures and keep them coming!

Two rounds of thunderstorms came roaring through early Tuesday morning producing significant wind damage mainly north of Highway 20 in Illinois and up through Wisconsin.  There were numerous reports of possible tornadoes near Madison, WI and back southwest near Plattville, WI from the initial line that went through.  Further south, while there were no severe thunderstorm warnings, many up around Roscoe and Rockton reported wind damage to trees and structures in isolated areas.

The second line of storms intensified as it moved through eastern Iowa and eventually into northwest Illinois where a 69 mph wind gust was reported from a home weather station in Stockton.  From there, numerous reports of downed power lines and trees started coming in from Stockton to Lena to Freeport up towards Warren and Orangeville.

Strong winds along the leading edge of both those storms likely produced winds in excess of 70 mph, which caused the significant damage.  Now, we've got a break from the weather as skies have cleared.  But, it's those clearing skies that will build instability through the afternoon and could help fuel thunderstorms later today and tonight.

We will stay dry through the remainder of the morning as well as into the early afternoon as temperatures a few thousand feet above continue to warm.  This will put a 'cap' on the atmosphere to prohibit much storm development going into the afternoon.  That 'cap' will weaken as an upper level disturbance moves in from the southwest.  While it won't be as strong as the one that rolled through last night, it will be enough to fire up storms through the evening and overnight.  The low level jet will also fire back up helping to initiate storms and push them east as the jet remains pointed towards northern Illinois. 

Why the multiple day storm chance?  The jet stream is pretty much placed right overhead.  South of the jet stream, a hot and steamy air mass continues to build while north of the jet stream a less hot and more stable air mass is in place.  Right in the middle resides the Midwest and Great Lakes leaving this area favored for strong to severe storms.  This is somewhat a 'Ring of Fire' pattern.  It's not a strong one, but storms follow the northern part of the jet stream feeding off of the moisture and instability that's building to the south and causing storms to move over the same area day after day.  Until the ridge breaks down or moves, the stormy pattern will continue.  Also with the ridge, the warm front near the Illinois/Wisconsin border doesn't have much of a pushing force, keeping the front in place and the focus for storm development.  It really doesn't look like until late Thursday that this pattern will break down.

Monday Evening Severe Weather Update

1:20am Update:  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for much of northern Illinois and southern Wiscosnin.  As of right now there are no active warnings in place, however, a line of strong thunderstorms continue to move through with frequent lightning, very heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph.




12:10am Update: Severe T-Storm Warning for eastern Green and western Rock Counties in Wisconsin until 12:45pm. Storm is capable of 70mph winds.

11:45pm Update: Severe T-Storm Warning continues for Green County in Wisconsin until 12:15am. Strong winds, small hail, and heavy rains will continue to be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting an isolated tornado can't be ruled out tonight, either.

9:50pm Update: TIMING UPDATE: Storms looking to arrive in Rockford sometime between midnight and 1:00am.

9:30pm Update: A Severe T-Storm Watch is now in effect for the entire Stateline until 3:00am.

9:10pm Update: A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside until 3:00am. Strong winds still the main threat overnight.

Original Post: The threat for severe weather will be sticking around the Stateline for the next couple of days. Here's a look at what we're dealing with for our Monday night.

A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect for Jo Daviess and Carroll Counties until midnight. Not much is expected from this watch as severe weather has been limited to Iowa most of the day.

The bigger event will be overnight. Storms in Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota are expected to form a cluster of heavy rain and strong winds, moving into the Stateline after midnight. Models have been suggesting that the worst of this system will stay to our north, but a few stronger storms for the Stateline can't be ruled out.

RPM Model: Tuesday at 1:00am

Stay tuned to WTVO 17, FOX 39, MyStateline.com and the First Warn Weather blog for the latest developments on tonight's severe weather chances. -BA

Stormy and humid weather pattern ahead

After last week's quiet weather, it looks like Mother Nature will not only be turning up the heat and humidity this week, but also the daily threat for storms - some possibly severe.

Ongoing storms in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will be the focus for further development into Iowa later this morning and afternoon.  This is the area the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for a moderate risk for severe storms later today.  Closer to home, the humidity has already started to build with dew points rising and cumulus clouds starting to form.  Most of today in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin should remain dry as storms brew just to our west.  Where exactly those storms go later this evening and tonight is the million dollar question.  Earlier this morning it looked like the greatest likelihood of storm development would be across far northern Illinois and central and southern Wisconsin tonight and early Tuesday morning.  Now, watching those storms currently form in eastern Nebraska has me wondering if a more southern track is the way to go.  Meaning more of northern Illinois could be in line for storms late this evening and overnight.

The storms out west will form into what will likely be a large thunderstorm complex late this afternoon and evening that will quickly charge east as the low level jet ramps up sustaining the instability through the overnight.  As these storms move east, they will follow the greatest axis of moisture and instability which looks to set up right across central and southern Wisconsin and possibly northern Illinois.  Should this large complex of storms come through, very heavy rain and damaging winds would be the primary threats. 

A moderate risk for severe weather is in place across Iowa and the slight risk extends into Wisconsin and Illinois, mainly for tonight.  Leftover boundaries and a warm front will become the focal point for storm generation over the next few days which, if placed right overhead, could mean some serious rainfall coming through the middle of the week.  The severe storm threat will also be there as well.  Unfortunately, this wet pattern will hold firm through the majority of the week.

Unique Full Moon For Thursday Night

Thursday night's forecast is calling for clear skies, which is perfect viewing weather for our next full moon, also known as the Strawberry Moon.

The Strawberry Moon will begin at 11:13pm Thursday. This full moon gets its name from the fact that it's strawberry season. Algonquin tribes would see the full moon as a signal to start picking their strawberry crop.

What makes this full moon unique is that when the clock strikes midnight, it will officially fall on Friday the 13th. The last time that happened was almost 100 years ago. The next time we'll see a full moon on Friday the 13th won't be until the year 2049.

If you want to check out the Strawberry Moon, just make sure to throw on the jacket. Temperatures at 11:00pm will be in the upper 50s with overnight lows in the upper 40s. Happy moongazing tonight! -BA