Stormy and humid weather pattern ahead

After last week's quiet weather, it looks like Mother Nature will not only be turning up the heat and humidity this week, but also the daily threat for storms - some possibly severe.

Ongoing storms in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will be the focus for further development into Iowa later this morning and afternoon.  This is the area the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for a moderate risk for severe storms later today.  Closer to home, the humidity has already started to build with dew points rising and cumulus clouds starting to form.  Most of today in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin should remain dry as storms brew just to our west.  Where exactly those storms go later this evening and tonight is the million dollar question.  Earlier this morning it looked like the greatest likelihood of storm development would be across far northern Illinois and central and southern Wisconsin tonight and early Tuesday morning.  Now, watching those storms currently form in eastern Nebraska has me wondering if a more southern track is the way to go.  Meaning more of northern Illinois could be in line for storms late this evening and overnight.

The storms out west will form into what will likely be a large thunderstorm complex late this afternoon and evening that will quickly charge east as the low level jet ramps up sustaining the instability through the overnight.  As these storms move east, they will follow the greatest axis of moisture and instability which looks to set up right across central and southern Wisconsin and possibly northern Illinois.  Should this large complex of storms come through, very heavy rain and damaging winds would be the primary threats. 

A moderate risk for severe weather is in place across Iowa and the slight risk extends into Wisconsin and Illinois, mainly for tonight.  Leftover boundaries and a warm front will become the focal point for storm generation over the next few days which, if placed right overhead, could mean some serious rainfall coming through the middle of the week.  The severe storm threat will also be there as well.  Unfortunately, this wet pattern will hold firm through the majority of the week.