Many of us remained pretty quiet Tuesday night. Storms fired up near the Wisconsin/Illinois border late in the evening, but most of the storm activity remained north in Wisconsin and back out west in Iowa. So, why was that?
Well, we basically had a lid on the atmosphere last night. The surface warm front had shifted north into Wisconsin which basically made the atmosphere too stable, because there were warm temperatures at the surface but also up above, for thunderstorms to form in northern Illinois. While you need the warmth at the surface to build instability, temperatures up above need to be a little cooler for air to rise. When the air from the surface rises into an air mass that is at the same, or warmer, temperature the air can't rise anymore.
This morning, however, part of that cap weakened which was what allowed storms to intensify in southern Wisconsin. Had the cap weakened a bit further south into Illinois, the storms we had this morning could have been a bit stronger.
The rain will be out of here by Noon with skies already beginning to clear back west in Iowa. If clouds continue to thin to the east, there remains a greater probability of thunderstorms firing back up this afternoon and evening along old boundaries from this morning's storm activity, but also along a warm front that will have shifted a little further south into Illinois. The slight risk for severe weather remains for the area and should storms fire back up later today, strong winds, hail and heavy rain are going to be the primary concerns.
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