Big pattern change means a big cool down later in the week

Temperatures will turn quite a bit cooler by the end of the week with highs struggling to even make it out of the 30s! Some of the coolest air we've felt all season is forecast to move behind another powerful Fall storm system later this week. Before the cool down temperatures are actually going to rise back close to 70 degrees by the middle of the week.

A fast-moving jet stream to the northwest of the Stateline has kept skies mostly cloudy for some, but has allowed some sunshine to appear across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Temperatures Sunday warmed into the upper 50s, reaching 59 degrees in Rockford. Under a mostly clear sky Sunday night temperatures will fall to the low 30s. There will likely be just enough of a breeze to keep widespread frost from forming, but patchy frost in the typical cooler locations is possible. Sunshine returns Monday with highs right around average, warming into the low 50s.

High pressure will once again reside over the Southeast allowing a southwest wind to develop across the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will help bring temperatures back up above average, warming into the middle 60s on Wednesday and then possibly close to 70 degrees (if not low 70s) by Thursday!

A strong Fall storm system, however, will develop out west and quickly move through the High Plains and Upper Midwest. As it does a strong cold front will sweep through Illinois and Wisconsin either late Thursday night or Friday morning. The air mass ahead of the front will bring well above average temperatures, but the air mass behind the front will bring well below temperatures. 

Like this past Saturday, highs on Friday are likely to be achieved early in the day with temperatures quickly falling once the cold front comes through. This means afternoon temperatures will remain in the 40s and 30s. Skies will be quick to clear, but it'll remain cold and windy. The chill will last through the weekend - Saturday and Sunday - when high temperatures struggle to make it out of the 30s. Saturday's high is forecast to rise only to 36 degrees with Sunday's high only at 35 degrees. Overnight lows both nights will fall into the 20s with chills most likely in the teens, if not single digits.    

Rain Chances Return, Wind Advisory In Place for Much of Saturday

Rain Chances Return:

After a fabulous 3-day stretch of sunshine and 70-degree temperatures, our attention now turns to our next rain chance and the strong winds that come along for the ride. Most of the morning commute aims to be dry, with the chance for a few scattered showers moving in shortly after sunrise. 

This activity looks to become a little more widespread as we inch towards the mid-day hours as a frontal boundary approaches the IL/WI border. Once this warm front moves into S. Wisconsin, it'll take the majority of the showers with it, resulting in a little break from the activity. The warm-up process today won't be as significant as the past couple of days, but most will manage to get back into the upper 60s, close to 70-degrees.  

Wind Advisory:

As a deepening area of low-pressure spirals into eastern Iowa Saturday morning, winds a few thousand feet above the surface (also known as the low-level jet) will intensify. As of a result, winds at ground-level will also be on the rise. 

Because of this, the National Weather Service (NWS) has placed all of our northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin counties under a WIND ADVISORY. This advisory will be in effect from 4AM-4PM Saturday. Winds throughout this time will be blowing out of the south and southwest, gusting between 45-55 mph. This will make travel a bit difficult for those who operate a high-profile vehicle and will likely blow around any loose objects in your yard.

As the associated cold front slides through Saturday morning, heavier downpours will be a possibility. From what it looks like, the potnetial  for severe weather remains very low. But the one component we'll have to keep an eye on is the position of the surface low and the location of it's frontal boundaries. This may bring the potential for a strong shower and or an isolated t-storm across southern and southeast Wisconsin.

With the amount of spin this storm system brings to our atmosphere, a low-end risk for a quick spin up tornado or two will be present. The timing of this severe threat would be early in the morning, mainly before the sun comes up. 

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has left the Stateline under a general or non-severe risk for thunderstorms. I'll be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast and to have multiple ways to receive warnings, should there be an opportunity for one to be issued. When it is all said and done, rainfall amounts for most will land in the .50" to 1.50" range, with the higher totals occurring to our north and west. 

Daylight Saving Time:

Guidance then ejects this potent storm system into the Great Lakes by Saturday evening, allowing dry conditions to settle in for Sunday. Remember, we turn our clocks back an hour Sunday morning as Daylight Saving Time comes to an end. 

This means that our sunrises starting Sunday will occur closer to 6:30AM. But that also means that our sunset times will be pulled back an hour as well, landing closer to 4:45AM. With southwest flow remaining in place, temperatures remain above-average with most landing in lower 60s. Slightly cooler air arrives early next week, placing Monday's highs in the upper 50s.

Heavy rain, strong winds and low-end severe risk Friday and Saturday

 
Cloud cover will continue to increase Thursday evening as a storm system out west gains strength and moves into the Plains. For the third straight day the high temperature reached the low 70s, even though we have had an increase in cloud cover for much of Thursday afternoon. Winds have also been strong, gusting from the south around 35 mph. The strong wind gusts will ease some through the evening but remain around 20 mph overnight. This will help temperatures stay very mild, with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Widely scattered showers are possible Friday morning, becoming a little more widespread mid to late morning as a warm front nears northern Illinois. During that time, south winds could gust as high as 35 mph. As the front moves into southern Wisconsin Friday afternoon, it'll take the majority of the rain with it leaving our skies cloudy, but mostly dry.

A deepening low-pressure system will move into Iowa late Friday night and Saturday morning. As it does, the wind field around the low will significantly increase. This will cause south winds to potentially gust as high as 50 mph both Saturday morning and afternoon. It's likely that at least a wind advisory will be issued for the region. Already wind advisories have been issued just south of the area. 

Waves of heavier rain are expected Friday night and Saturday morning as the cold front comes through. The risk for severe weather is low area wide, but with the position of the warm front in southern Wisconsin, the cold front in northern Illinois, and the surface low in northeast Iowa it is possible that a strong shower/isolated storm could occur in southern Wisconsin. There is also a low-end risk for a quick spin up tornado if any of the linear showers begin to surge forward. The timing of that severe threat would be early Saturday morning, possibly before the sun comes up. Even though it is a low-end risk, it's important to make sure you remain aware of the weather and have a way to receive warnings, should they be issued. 

A drier afternoon is expected once the cold front passes Saturday. Temperatures Friday night remain in the 60s but will drop behind the cold front Saturday afternoon down into the low 50s. The quick change in pressure, followed by the strong arrival of cold air, will keep the strong winds during the afternoon.

Rainfall amounts will range across the Stateline, from west to east, between 0.50 inches to 2.50", with the higher totals occurring over northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin.   

November Warmth Continues, Rainy & Windy Stretch to Follow

November Warmth:

Well folks, mother nature has given us quite the treat to kick off the month of November. Under a plethora of sunshine, highs both Tuesday and Wednesday peaked in the low 70s. According to the National Weather Service, only 1 in 4 Novembers feature a day as warm as Wednesday. Fortunately, we get to enjoy one more day of 70° weather before we see a downward trend in the temperature department over the next weeks.

 

 

Thursday begins with a warmer start as most of us are waking up in the upper 40s and low 50s. Like the past two days, the warmer start will give way to a well-above average afternoon. For the third consecutive day, high temperatures will peak in the lower 70s under a decent amount of sunshine. 

In fact, our forecast high of 74° lands about 20° above-average and just three degrees shy of the record high for November 3rd from 1938. Winds will also pick up a bit this afternoon, and will likely remain rather strong overnight into Friday morning. This is all ahead of a low-moving frontal boundary and a maturing low pressure system that will bring rain chances to the area to round out the work week and to begin the upcoming weekend. 

Rain Chances Return:

Before heading to bed this evening, make sure to place your rain gear somewhere so that it's easily accessible come Friday morning. Forecast models do show showers moving through in a scattered fashion throughout the day, with more organized clusters of heavy downpours sliding to our north and west. From there, expect rain to become more widespread as we go into the evening hours, with heavy rain remaining a possibility overnight. 

Wind-Driven Rain:

The storm system responsible for the upcoming rain chances will also bring quite the wind to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. As it matures to our west, the pressure gradient locally will tighten up into Saturday morning, resulting in wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. 

This will make for wind-driven rain during the first half of the day Saturday. Fortunately, it still looks like we're out of the woods when it comes to severe weather as the highest potential remains well south of the Stateline. Now with that being said, a few rumbles of thunder and heavy downpours will be highly possible. Rainfall-wise, models have been consistent with totals landing over an inch for most, with the highest totals occurring closer to the Mississippi River. Sunday looks to remain dry with southwest winds placing high temperatures in the lower 60s. Little cooler for Monday.

Winds increase for the start of the weekend

 Under sun-filled skies and a steady breeze from the south, high temperatures Wednesday afternoon warmed into the low 70s area wide. A few clouds moving in this evening will turn our skies partly cloudy as overnight lows dip into the upper 40s. Cloud cover will gradually increase during the afternoon Thursday with temperatures once again reaching the low 70s, but that may be the last 70-degree day - or at least last nice 70-degree day, as rain moves in for the weekend.

The pressure gradient tightens between high pressure over the Southeast and low pressure out over the West, causing winds to increase during the day Thursday. Gusts to 30 mph are possible, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Low pressure strengthening over Iowa Friday night will cause south winds to increase even further, especially during the overnight and Saturday morning.

Gusts 40-45 mph are possible during that time, outside of the showers and isolated thunderstorms that'll be moving through. Higher wind gusts are possible if some of the stronger showers are able to bring down the strong winds just a few thousand feet above the surface.

 

70s & Sunshine Continue, Rain Moves In Friday

More 70s On The Way:

If you ask  me, mother nature gave us a perfect 10 out of 10 to kick off November. Skies across the region Tuesday remained sun-filled from beginning to end, with high temperatures landing on either side of the 70-degree mark. Now, for those that didn't get a chance to go outside and enjoy Tuesday's beautiful weather, you'll be happy to know that it’s nowhere from being finished!

Warm Wednesday:  

In a similar fashion to Tuesday, today kicks off with a mainly clear sky and a bit of a chill. Prior to sunrise, temperatures have found themselves sitting on either side of the 40-degree mark. 

As the day carries on, we'll be going from jacket weather to shorts weather as temperatures warm rather quickly. Under a mostly to partly sunny sky, temperatures this afternoon are expected to land in the lower 70s. And if that wasn't enough, Thursday also features highs in the lower 70s, marking our third 70-degree day in a row. However, there will be more clouds floating overhead, especially during the later half of the day as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the west.

Rain Moves In Late:

Cloud cover is then expected to gradually thicken as we move into Thursday night, with our next opportunity for rain soon to follow. Chances start off isolated overnight, becoming a little more organized as Friday progresses. 

Now, we're not looking at a total washout as there will be some dry hours mixed in. With that being said, I would plan to have the umbrella on hand throughout the day. Despite Friday's cloudy and rainy forecast, temperatures will still end up well-above average. Guidance from there shows our best chance for rain moving in overnight Friday into early Saturday. It’s during that time that a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Fortunately, severe weather potential is very low. Rain clears up late in the day Saturday, leaving conditions dry for the end of the weekend. 

Feeling More Like Late-September Rather Than Early-November

November Climatology:

With the spooks of Halloween now in the rearview mirror, I'd like to welcome you all to November. Or shall I say late September part II with the way our weather pattern is going to shape up. 

Climatologically, the Rockford Airport registers highs in the low 50s to begin the month. But that won't nearly be the case this year. The combination of a very dry atmosphere, plenty of beautiful sunshine, and a rather warm but light wind will help temperatures soar well above early-November standards.

Unseasonably Warm Start:

The first morning of November does feature a bit of a chill as temperatures out the door will be sitting in the mid to upper 30s. With that being said, today will be one of those days where you'll want the jacket on during the morning but won't need it during the afternoon!  

Underneath an abundance of sunshine, temperatures will quickly soar into the upper 60s, close to 70°. Today's tranquil weather carries on into the night tonight, with temperatures falling into the lower 40s prior to sunrise. Yes, you will still need to put on a jacket Wednesday morning. However, a similar climb in temperatures can be expected, with highs climbing over the 70° mark.

Late Week Rain:

Despite Thursday featuring a bit more cloud cover, especially during the later half of the day, highs will still warm into the lower 70s. In fact, Thursday will be so warm that our forecast high temperature of 73° falls short of the daily record high set back in 1938 by only a few degrees!

Forecast models then showcase a slow-moving frontal boundary to our west overnight Thursday into Friday. It's during this time in which we will see our next round of showers arrive, with chances lasting through much of the day Friday. Even with rain chances sliding into the mix, a rather gusty south to southwesterly breeze looks to remain intact, allowing temperatures to approach the 70-degree mark. Showers aim to stick around into the first half of the weekend, with temperatures cooling into the low to mid 60s.