It was a windy Saturday in the Stateline with some recording wind gusts upwards of 30-35 mph during the day. The Southerly direction of the strong wind allowed for some spots to warm into the mid-80s today, about 15° above average!
The warmer trends stick around into much of the night as Southerly winds remain strong until a cold front passes through after midnight. Along the front, we may see an isolated shower or two, but many if not all will remain dry. Temperatures then settle into the mid 50s before sunrise.
Behind the front, winds will shift to come out of the Northwest but could remain strong into the mid-afternoon. Peak wind gusts again will be around 30 mph. This NW direction keeps us cooler, with high temperatures struggling to hit the 70-degree mark!
With the strong NW winds and drier air behind the front, the threat for brush and field fires may be higher Sunday than it was Saturday. Be sure to limit or avoid any outdoor burning and take extra precautions with field equipment!
The drier air behind the front will also allow for a few chilly nights. Dry air warms up and cools off much faster than moist air does. Clear skies, dry air, and high pressure overhead will allow for a few nights with overnight lows in the low 40s between Sunday and Tuesday nights.
It was a noticeably cooler day in the Stateline Friday compared to the near 80-degree highs. But the cool and dry weather will allow for fabulous weather tonight for Friday night football games! Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s by the end of those games, so it may be a little cool by the time the clocks hit triple zeros.
This weekend will be a windy one, with strong gusts upwards of 30 mph both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. On Saturday, those winds will be from a Southerly direction, bringing a bit more warmth and moisture our direction. Sunday is a different story behind a strong cold front, with those gusts ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.
The strong winds paired with our recent dry spell may develop an elevated fire risk, particularly on Sunday. Low relative humidity with dew point temperatures in the 30s Sunday afternoon may set the stage for a brush fire risk to set up given the dry and dead vegetation. Be sure to limit outdoor burning and have a plan in place to put out any small fires that do start!
Another thing the flipping pattern in the wind direction will do this weekend is create another up and down forecast. Southerly winds on Saturday will aid to boost afternoon temperatures into the low 80s. Sunday, the Northwest direction to the wind will keep highs suppressed in the low 70s.
Our lone chance for rain this entire week will come along that cold front Saturday evening. Better forcing and moisture will be displaced closer to the center of the low-pressure system, keeping much of the Stateline likely under dry conditions. There is a slim chance we may be able to squeeze out a shower or two along and North of the IL/WI line, but many will remain dry.
Unfortunately, that is the only chance for rain within the next 7 days, as a very dry pattern will set in across much of the country. The Weather Prediction Center keeps almost all of the lower 48 very dry through the next week.
In even worse news, that dry pattern will continue to remain locked in place through the next week and a half. The 6-10 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have high confidence in a warmer and drier than average pattern for much of the country, including here in the Stateline. The colors translate to a 50-60% probability of below average precipitation and 60-70% probability of above average temperatures between the 10th-14th of October.
Aside from our slim chance for rain Saturday evening, we will remain dry the rest of the week as high pressure takes over Monday and Tuesday. This will keep our temperatures cool, especially overnight, with lows in the low 40s for a few nights. Afternoon highs will remain above average all week, considering average for this time of year is mid-60s. Once that high pressure moves away, we start to gradually warm even more, up into the mid-70s and near 80 again late next week.
It's been 84 years... 84 years since we last discussed the potential for rain here in N. Illinois. But the faucet turned off rather quickly as the heaviest rain pushed to the south and southwest of Rockford.
Cloud cover will linger into mid-morning, with a decrease in cloud cover to follow. This will leave us with a decent amount of sunshine this afternoon, though a light northeasterly breeze will limit highs temperatures to the low 70s.
The focus then turns to gusty winds. A strengthening area of low pressure will inch closer to a high pressure system over the northeast, tightening the pressure in between the two.
Rule of thumb, the tighter the pressure gradient, the stronger the winds will be. With the Stateline being placed under the "warm sector" of the low (area between the warm front and the cold front), winds Saturday will be out of the southeast.
Peak gusts will land in the 25-35 mph range, leaving afternoon highs in the low 80s under partly cloudy. Quick to follow is the cold front which aims to slide through the region sometime early Sunday. More sunshine is expected Sunday, though breezy winds will continue. Winds this time around will be out of the northwest, bringing afternoon highs back into the low 70s, then upper 60s Monday.
Drought conditions continue to hold steady for many in the Stateline, with abnormally dry to moderate drought across all our Stateline counties. There were some improvements to Illinois' overall numbers with much-needed rainfall from the remnants of Helene across the Southern portions of the state. But Wisconsin saw drought conditions worsen, especially across Northern parts of the state, including severe drought growing in NE Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, our upcoming chances for rain are limited with not much total rainfall on the way. Our first chance comes late tonight as a frontal system passes through. A passing shower or two may be possible between 12AM-6AM in the Stateline, with rain exiting the area by sunrise. Those who do see any rain likely won't see much, less than 0.1" in total.
Lingering clouds from that system will not stick around long into Friday morning, with more sunshine returning for the afternoon. High temperatures later that afternoon will be noticeably cooler than the near-80° highs we saw Thursday. Temperatures will then start to fall by the evening under dry air and clear skies, allowing for some chill by Friday night football games.
The weekend will be a bit of a windy one with gusts near 30 mph both Saturday and Sunday. Southerly winds on Saturday will allow for temperatures to rise into the 80s, with a slim chance for a shower late into the night along our next cold front. That front flips winds to come from the Northwest, as they still gust to around 30 mph. Similar to Friday, skies will clear into the afternoon allowing more sunshine later into the day.
Saturday night, the bulk of the rain along the cold front will be displaced to our North, but an isolated shower or two may be possible along with a stray rumble of thunder. Greatest chances for any meaningful rain lie further North into Central Wisconsin.
After Saturday night, the rest of the week is dry with temperatures slowly climbing back to the mid-70s by the end of the week, with more sunshine and dry air especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be chilly most nights with clear skies.
Thicker coats were needed Wednesday morning as temperatures fell into the upper 30s. With the coolest air now to our east, temperatures are on the up and up, resulting in a warmer start to the day.
Out the door, expect most locales to be sitting in the upper 40s under mostly clear skies. Still cool enough for a light jacket or sweatshirt. Warm air pooling in ahead of our next cold front will bring a more late-August-like feel this afternoon. Highs will end up closer to the 80° mark under plenty of sun.
As the front slides through Thursday night and early Friday morning, cloud cover increases and the chance for a
few showers will be present. This will last until sunrise, with clouds give way to sunshine rather quickly for Friday afternoon. Northwest winds behind the front will limit highs to the low 70s.
Warmer flow returns Saturday ahead of a secondary cold front, leaving highs in the low 80s. This cold front as it passes on through may also pose a slim chance for a passing shower or two into early Sunday. Otherwise, expect gradual clearing to take place with afternoon highs landing in the low 70s.
Temperatures Wednesday morning fell into the 30s in a few spots but managed to warm into the low 70s during the afternoon. Ample sunshine and a very dry air mass helped to give temperatures a nice little boost throughout the day.
Through the remainder of the evening skies may have a little more of a hazy look as some smoke from the fires out west move across the Midwest, into the Stateline. This will lead to a hazy sunset Wednesday and sunrise Thursday.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid and upper 40s, but not quite as cold as Wednesday morning. Winds will remain light from the south, increasing just a bit during the afternoon. As the wind increases temperatures will continue to warm through the mid and upper 70s. It wouldn't surprise me if a few locations reach 80 Thursday afternoon.
Cloud cover will increase Thursday evening with the arrival of a cold front late Thursday night. There is a little more moisture associated with the front and with some additional support from slightly stronger winds in the jet stream, we may see a quick shower or two before sunrise Friday. But any rain that does come down won't amount to much.
Winds will quickly turn to the northeast Friday morning as skies dry out for the afternoon. This will bring temperatures back into the low 70s, with dry and breezy conditions Friday evening. Another great night for Friday night football games.
Winds turn right back to the south Saturday bringing temperatures back near 80 as another cold front comes marching in Saturday night. Northwest winds increase behind this second front allowing dew point temperatures to quickly drop heading into Sunday. The dry air mass, gusty northwest winds, and dried out vegetation could increase the fire risk for field and brush fires across the region Sunday afternoon.
Yesterday's frontal passage brought big changes in the form of cooler temperatures, which is really being felt across the area this morning.
Temperatures to start are sitting 15° to as much as 25° cooler than at this point yesterday, leaving most locales in the upper 30s and low 40s. Be sure to have an extra layer or have that thicker jacket on before leaving the house this morning.
High pressure shifting east will allow surface flow to turn to the southwest, bringing temperatures up a few degrees compared to Tuesday. At times, winds this afternoon could gust up to 25 mph, which will leave high temperatures in the low 70s. Skies remain dry into Thursday morning, though temperatures won't be as cool landing in the upper 40s.
Our next cold front will slide through the region Thursday night into early
Friday. Unlike Tuesday's frontal passage, this one will have a little bit more moisture to work with, resulting in a few showers and isolated storms. Clouds will stick around for the early portions of Friday, though more sunshine will emerge as
the day progresses. Highs will fall back a few degrees, landing in the low 70s.
