Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Light Snow Moves in Wednesday Evening - Several Inches of Snow Possible by Saturday Morning

A slow moving low pressure system will move through Plains and Midwest through the end of the week bringing potentially several inches of snow by Saturday morning. This isn't going to be a major snowstorm by any means, but could cause some issues on the roads at certain times through Friday night.

The first round of snow is already falling in Iowa, now moving into northwest Illinois, but with a dry atmosphere overhead not much of that
locally is reaching the ground just yet. It won't be until between 7pm and 9pm when we'll begin to see the snow reach the surface. Once the snow begins it will remain light, but steady, through Thursday morning adding up between half an inch to an inch and a half. Temperatures will be very close to freezing and likely won't drop too much during the overnight. This should allow most impacts to the roads to be confined to untreated and less-traveled roadways during the morning commute. Low pressure will spin closer to central Illinois Thursday afternoon keeping the threat for light snow during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures Thursday won't rise much above freezing, and will remain below freezing aloft. This *should* keep most of the precipitation in the form of snow through Thursday night. Although it is possible that some rain or even sleet could be mixed in during the day on Thursday in a few locations.

Low pressure then moves closer to northern Illinois Friday and will provide a slightly better chance for warm air to lift this far north, meaning a better chance for a rain/snow mix during the afternoon. The track of the low, however, Friday night does need watching as it could move in just the right way that leads to a few hour burst of heavy snow Friday evening and night. If that were to occur, it is during that time when the majority of the accumulating snow would occur. Between Wednesday night and Friday night, several inches of snow is possible but it will be spread out over a few day period, reducing the impacts some across the Stateline. Temperatures won't cool too much for the weekend and are then expected to rise near 40 degrees towards the middle of next week.

Temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s through the end of the week mean the snow to liquid ratios will likely be low. This means the snow that falls will have more moisture and will be a little more heavy at times. An average snow to liquid ratio is 10:1, meaning 10 inches of snow melted down would be the equivalent of one inch of liquid precipitation. The higher the snow to liquid ratio, the drier and more fluffy the snow is. The lower the snow to liquid ratio, the more heavy and wet the snow will be. The snow
to liquid ratio with this storm system will end up between 7:1 and 11:1 throughout the 3 day period.

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