Remnants of T.D Cristobal brings Heavy Rain, Severe, & Strong Wind Potential To the Stateline

The long awaited arrival of what is now Tropical Depression Cristobal is here. After a beautiful stretch of dry weather, the arrival of this system is going to bring the potential for heavy rainfall, severe storms, and strong wind gusts.

So far, our day has been off to a dry start. The only thing that we've seen from Cristobal this morning has been a deck of high clouds that floated in from the south, turning our skies partly to mostly cloudy. Clouds are going to continue increase and rain is going to be quick to follow. Temperatures early on were in the upper 60s and low 70s, but the air had a comfortable feel to it as dew points sat in the 50s.

As of 9 a.m, the National Hurricane Center observed the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal tracking to the west of the St. Louis metro, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Missouri. As this system continues it's journey northward, temperatures and dew points will quickly rise, making it feel more a little more tropical outside.

Models once again showed the remnants of Cristobal riding northeastward along the Mississippi River, bringing our first rain chances around or shortly after 1PM stretching until 8-9PM this evening. Typically with a system that originates in the tropics, rainfall and flash flooding is one of the biggest concerns. Although this system has been over land for the past 24 to 36 hours, it still has plenty of rich tropical moisture left in it's reserves.

This will lead to higher rainfall amounts along the track of the surface low, specifically eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin, than here in the Stateline. At the same time, the flash flood threat for the local area is fairly low, however the risk increases farther west. Overall, current thinking suggest that the Stateline could see 1/2 to 1.5" of rainfall, with higher amounts towards the Mississippi River. This is little compared to what areas in eastern and northeast Iowa could see, picking up a whopping 2" to 5". The only county that is current under a flash flood watch is Jo-Daviess county, and that will stretch into this evening.

As far as the threat for severe weather is concerned, Cristobal is going to add a little more spin to the atmosphere, which will help heighten the threat for brief tornadoes. Per the 8 a.m update, The Storm Prediction Center has kept a majority of our region under a Marginal Risk, (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. They did however expand the Slight risk (level 2 of 5), which now includes a portion of southeast Lee county, and the southern half of Dekalb county.  This system will also heighten the wind field in the low-levels of our atmosphere, allowing for damaging wind gusts to be another threat with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening. Between the hours of 1-9PM, be weather aware. Please be sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

In addition to the heavy rain & severe potential, winds are expected to ramp up during this time frame. Winds gusts could range between 30 to 40 mph at times, especially between 4 PM and midnight tonight. As we roll into Wednesday, Cristobal will finally move away from the Stateline. However, another system will slide in from the central plains, bringing a cold front into the region by late tomorrow afternoon. This will keep the breezy conditions and threat for scattered showers around for the middle of the work week. Thankfully, the forecast seems to quiet down as we head into the second half of the week, and stretch into the weekend!