Friday, June 26, 2020

Storms Once Again Possible Later Today, Some Strong to Severe

Many across the Stateline may have been woken up to the sound of thunder on this Friday morning. The region was greeted to a round of showers and thunderstorms that sparked up along a lifting warm front, tracking eastward through the mid-morning hours. There hasn't been any severe weather with the activity we've seen so far this morning. However, these thunderstorms have been capable of producing heavy downpours, and even small sized hail with the stronger updrafts. The chances for scattered thunderstorms will stick around into late morning hours, so it wouldn't be a bad idea to grab the umbrellas and rain gear before heading out.

After the morning activity comes to a close, another round of thunderstorms is set to arrive by this afternoon, bringing a higher chance for severe potential. The environment over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will be better primed for stronger storms later today with effective wind shear aloft and better forcing thanks to an approaching cold front.  Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center did upgrade the entire Stateline area from a Slight Risk to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5). Storm mode ahead of an approaching cold front will quickly turn linear, leading to the development of a strong line of storms, or a system we call an M.C.S or a Mesoscale Convective System. Typically, this type of storm system is known for producing very gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

This complex of storms of storms will begin to form in northeast Iowa, tracking southeastward as the evening progresses. The main time frame for severe weather continues to be between 4PM to 10PM. The main threats will include damaging wind gusts heavy rainfall, and large hail. The SPC's discussion also includes the chance for a few brief tornadoes, which can happen with a line of strong storms. Typically, you will have to keep an eye out for any kinks in the line with rotation. That, if the rotation is tight enough, could lead to quick spin-ups. This is why it is very important to make sure you, and your family are weather ready later on today. Severe weather is possible at any point in the year, so have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings from the National Weather Service. Whether that's from a weather radio, from us here at the First Warn Weather Center, or the First Warn Weather App.

As for the rest of the weekend, thunderstorms from today should come to a close before midnight. The rest of our night will feature mostly cloudy skies and muggy conditions, with low temperatures by tomorrow morning in the low 70s. The cold front responsible for the severe potnetial for this evening will glide through the region shortly after sunrise, maybe even into the mid-morning hours. Following this frontal boundary, cloud cover will gradually decrease leading to some sunshine for our Saturday afternoon. An isolated t-storm or two remains possible for the second half of the day, with a bigger thunderstorm threat residing to the south in central Illinois. Sunday also features many dry hours, with highs climbing back into the upper 80s. Along with the summer-like heat is an uptick in humidity. It's going to feel humid not only through the weekend but also into next week.


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