ACTIVE PATTERN AHEAD: What it means for our storm chances these next few days

 

We are definitely settling into a more active pattern this week (very typical for April in northern Illinois) with many opportunities for thunderstorms. There were a few non-severe storms that moved across northern Illinois earlier Monday afternoon, but those have since moved on leaving our skies partly sunny. Temperatures have warmed through the 70s and with dew points in the 60s, it's a bit sticky outside. The continued feed of higher moisture will leave us with a muggy feel these next few days.

The radar is pretty quiet locally with only an isolated storm or two possible for the rest of the evening. Further north in Wisconsin and Minnesota ongoing severe weather continues with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings in place. This activity will remain to our north through the late evening, sinking south after Midnight. It's likely that these storms will hold together enough to impact at least some of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois in the early morning hours of Tuesday. If we do see them hold together, they would pose a local wind and hail threat, along with some heavier rain. That window would be from roughly 1am/2am through 6am.

Now let's talk about Tuesday as this has been the day for us locally that we've been watching closely, but as the old saying goes, "The devil is in the details". The storms that come through late Monday night are likely going to lay out some sort of outflow boundary that'll probably end up to our south in the morning. The warm front currently to our north will also slip south, but most likely stay just north of the Wisconsin/Illinois state line. Following the precipitation in the morning we should see at least some recovery into the afternoon with regards to both sunshine and temperatures and this will probably develop some sort of cap, or lid, on our atmosphere during the afternoon.

A wave of energy moving in from the west and southwest will be the 'firing' mechanism for thunderstorm development - most likely in eastern Iowa and along the warm front in southern Wisconsin by late afternoon. Should these storms develop, they would most likely be supercell in nature (individual thunderstorms) capable of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Through time, those storms would then merge into more of a cluster of storms, or line of storms, shifting from the large hail threat to more of a wind and isolated tornado threat through the evening.

I think our window to pay attention to the radar will be from about 3pm/4pm to 10pm. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are in an 'enhanced risk' which is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms.

So, what do we need to make sure we are doing going into Tuesday? Be sure to monitor the weather throughout the day. Easier said than done in our busy lives, but before heading out the door in the morning check in with Meteorologist Joey Marino.

He will have the latest information on any impacts the storms early Tuesday morning could have on our environment for later in the afternoon and evening. And then throughout the afternoon both myself and Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe will be in keeping a close eye on radar and providing updates. Both Joey and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be out in the field keeping an eye on the skies. Review your severe storm safety plan at home, or if you're going to be out - know where to go should a warning be issued. But know that myself, Meteorologist Joey Marino, Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will have you covered!