Portions of the Stateline may be in line for multiple rounds of severe weather over the week ahead, including three days right in a row Monday through Wednesday. Each round will come with its own unique set of ingredients and circumstances.
Monday looks to be primarily dry through the daytime as we will remain capped, limiting storm potential initially. An isolated storm may remain possible, but the main wave will be during the late evening and mostly North of the area. Tuesday will bring the strongest potential for severe weather locally, as a volatile environment will be capable of producing all hazards of severe weather, particularly in the evening. Wednesday will bring more widespread coverage of rain with a few storms. Severe risk will remain, but not quite to the extent of Tuesday.
Now let's look at the timing of these storms. Monday will start on a dry note, with temperatures climbing back into the mid and upper 70s. A warm layer above the surface will keep a cap, or a lid on the atmosphere despite high levels of instability developing. There is a low (20%) chance to see a very isolated storm break through that cap during the afternoon, but a dry forecast is currently favored. If a storm develops, it may be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.
Better forcing will develop storms later in the evening. That forcing is centered across Southern Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin, where it appears likely a complex of storms will develop along and behind a warm front. There is a slim chance one of those storms tracks this far South, but that would be another isolated chance.
The best coverage of severe weather will remain mainly to the North with that late evening/nighttime window. That is where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas under a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk, while the Level 2/5 Slight risk extends down into far Northern Illinois for the isolated to scattered coverage of storms expected here. Again, any storms that develop locally may produce a wind and hail threat. The highest tornado risk is North toward the Enhanced risk.
Monday night's storms will likely produce an outflow boundary which will settle South toward our area by Tuesday morning. That boundary might be the primary initiating point for storms Tuesday afternoon. Once those storms develop, the environment Tuesday will be particularly volatile for severe weather. With higher instability and much less of a cap, all hazards of severe weather will be possible Tuesday, including a threat for tornadoes. The main timing for storms will be after 3-4PM. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a large area where severe weather may be possible Tuesday, including the entire Stateline under a Level 2/5 Slight risk.
Another risk for severe weather may be possible Wednesday, but this potential looks a little messier than Tuesday. Widespread rain may wash out some of the environment, preventing some of the extreme levels of instability. That said, scattered damaging wind gusts and hail remain possible. SPC's outlook highlights the Stateline for a 15% risk, which is equivalent to another Level 2/5 Slight risk.
While there will be lots of dry time between each wave, we will still need to watch very closely for severe weather on each of these days. Tuesday in particular has the highest potential locally. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week!
No comments:
Post a Comment