More than 1,700 tornadoes touched-down across the US last year. This was the second-most tornadoes reported in a single year behind 2004. A La Nina and warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water contributed to the active 2011 season.
In 2012 La Nina is still in place -- although it is weaker than last year's. Still, a more active than normal jet stream across the nation's midsection is expected due to La Nina. The Gulf of Mexico is also warmer than normal. This could lead to higher evaporation rates, and more powerful thunderstorms in return.
In my opinion, below average snow cover across the northern tier of the US into Canada could be a limiting factor to severe weather. This could mean cold fronts coming in from the north will be less powerful. Still, there are more signals for an active severe season than a slow one.
For more on this topic, here's an article from accuweather.com.
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