The latest morning model runs have started to come in regarding Thursday's storm and snow potential. Unfortunately, they have come in stronger with the low as well as with more moisture.
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Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside counties beginning at 6am Thursday. A
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties beginning at 8am Thursday.
Low pressure will move out of the Plains later tonight and almost overhead by Thursday mid-morning. The morning run of the GFS takes the low across northern Illinois while the NAM is a little further north. With these likely tracks the heaviest snow band would set up across northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
I want to stress that the exact track of this storm is still uncertain and ultimately this is going to affect where the heaviest axis of snow falls. Right now it appears to be along the Highway 20 corridor. The total QPF, or amount of moisture/precipitation, with this storm is between about 0.30" and 0.60" Using a 10:1 ratio that would yield snowfall totals between 3" and 6". Temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 30s during the time the snow falls so this could lead to more of a wet snow. One important aspect to keep an eye on along with the track will be the temperatures aloft. There will be a brief period of southerly winds ahead of the low which may warm the upper layers. If that were to occur there's a possibility of rain mixing with the snow which may cut down on totals.
Updates will continue here later this evening and tonight! Further analysis and monitoring of this system will be done throughout the day today! Stay tuned!
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