How Much Snow Are We Getting?

That is the million dollar question. Unfortunately, it's far too soon to tell exactly we'll see, but current model runs and a little common sense suggest it may not be much. Let's start with this afternoon's model runs.

ETA Model - Accumulation through Sunday Evening

The ETA model through Sunday night shows no snow in the Stateline, suggesting the switchover to snow from Sunday afternoon's showers hasn't happened yet. The longer it takes Sunday's showers to change to snow, the less we would see come Monday morning.

GFS Model - Accumulation through Midday Monday

The GFS is more promising, showing a few inches of accumulation by the time this system moves out of the area. How much of it would stick, though, is a serious question. Remember, highs were close to 70 to start the week. For snow to really start sticking, the ground needs to be frozen. The extremely mild start to December won't help that at all.

GEM Model - Accumulation for Sunday and Monday

The GEM (Canadian) model is also showing some accumulation, but not as much as the GFS. Once again, that much snow will have a hard time sticking because of the mild weather we've had.

This is only today's snapshot of what this system will do. There are plenty of factors that could change this... the most important being the movement of the storm. But don't be surprised if you see a little bit of the white stuff hanging around by Monday.