Winter storm tracks: Which one favors snow

We've had a little snow here and there, but so far any big winter storms have bypassed the Stateline.  As we get further into the winter months, the likelihood of that trend continuing will go down.  So, I figured now would be a good time to look at which type of winter storm track brings rain, ice or snow to the Stateline.

First, the rain track.  Wind around low pressure flows counterclockwise and in order for rain to fall in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, we need low pressure to track west of us from Kansas City, MO to La Crosse, WI.  This track keeps the wind from the south keeping the colder weather in the Midwest and Plains.  Sometimes if enough cold air gets wrapped in behind the low once it passes, we can get some light snow.

The mix/icy track:  When low pressure dips into the southern Plains and then back up through Arkansas, St. Louis and Chicago we tend to see a higher likelihood of either a rain/snow mix or possibly ice.  While we're on the 'cooler' side of the storm, winds a few thousand feet above may still have a southern component to them.  This means precipitation that falls through that warmer layer can melt, but because surface temperatures are likely at or below freezing the rain will refreeze at the surface.

The snow track:  In order to get a big snow in the Stateline, we need low pressure to track out of Oklahoma/Texas and move up through southern Illinois, Indianapolis and south of Detroit.  A general rule of thumb is that the heaviest snow band will fall northwest of where low pressure travels.  With this track, we never get into the warmer side of the low and as moisture is gobbled up from the Gulf, it interacts with the cold air at the surface creating heavy snow.  This is sometimes called a 'Panhandle Hook' because it moves out of the Panhandle of Texas and forms a 'J' is it moves northeast.

Looking ahead, there doesn't appear to be any major systems on the horizon.  The southern branch of the jet stream will stay pretty active over the next couple of weeks, but if it interacts with the northern branch and cold air we could end up with some snow.