Early Week Rain Chances, Severe Potential Tuesday

It's hard to top the gorgeous weather we encountered yesterday, as plenty of sunshine lead to temperatures in the upper 60s. In fact, our high of 67 at the Rockford International Airport snapped the 5 day below-average streak that was currently in place. We'll continue with the spring-like temperatures today, but an addition of shower chances return for the afternoon.


As for this morning, many woke up to the slight of a few peeks of sunshine, and comfortable temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Cloud cover will continue to thicken up, ahead of this afternoon's rain chances. The rain we see later today is all due to a weak disturbance that slides into the region from the upper Midwest. Currently, the heaviest rain with this disturbance is hovering right over the I-35 corridor north of Minneapolis, and across the northern half of Wisconsin. As we get closer towards the mid-day hours, models do suggest that the bulk of this activity is going remain to the north of the Stateline, with only a few light showers here tracking into the area. In terms of timing, shower chances will likely ramp up after the noon hour, continuing through the afternoon. All shower activity will remain light and sporadic in nature, with the window nearly entirely right around sunset.

Although severe weather is not expected today, the potential heightens as we head into our Tuesday. Overnight, a stronger surface low pressure system will help lift a warm front into northern Illinois by tomorrow afternoon. Along and south of this warm frontal boundary will be the areas to watch for the highest severe potential. Highs ahead of that warm front are going to climb into the mid to upper 60s, with toasty 70s on the backside of the front. If highs do manage to climb into the 70s, that will only help fuel and heighten the threat for severe storms. As dew points at the surface rise close to 60°, storms will definitely have a good amount of moisture and instability to tap into.

As of early Monday morning, the Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye on that warm front, as they have extended the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) northward into northern Illinois, with our counties in southern Wisconsin under a Marginal Risk. Any storm that does take advantage of this unstable environment will have the capability of producing strong winds, large hail, and tornado development.

Now, there are two key components to determine the potential during the day tomorrow for the Stateline. The placement of that warm front, and the amount of sunshine we see during the day. By midnight on Wednesday, the threat for severe weather is going to be wrapping up as slightly cooler temperatures work into the Stateline for midweek. Along with the cooler temperatures are a chance for showers as moisture wraps around the backside of the low. As a friendly reminder, be sure to have a severe weather plan ready to go, and to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings.