Thursday, April 16, 2020

Plenty of Sunshine Today Ahead of Tonight's Accumulation Snow

Boy, old man winter has made himself comfortable over the past few days. In fact, the first half of the week, stretching from Monday to Wednesday, featured unseasonably cold temperatures. Highs have climbed into the low 40s during this time frame, landing about 15° to 20 ° below average. The big factor into why it has been so cold as of late is all due to the placement of the jet stream. The jet stream has been draped over the southern plains and deep south recently, which has allowed this very cold air mass to be pulled into our neck of the woods. It really pains me to say this, but the next 24 hours features the continuation of this winter-like pattern.

If you were an early-riser, it definitely felt much like winter across the region this morning, as temperatures in most locations dropped into the low 20s. Wind chills fell even lower due to a very light northwesterly wind, into the upper teens. Fortunately, today is going to be fairly quiet ahead of tonight's snow chances as high pressure is in control of our atmosphere. Besides the cold temps, we started off our day beautifully with plenty of sunshine. It will take a while, but clouds will continue to build throughout the day, especially late this afternoon into the early evening. Highs will once again land in the 40s this afternoon, which is still about 15° or so below average. This mid-April chill is just the first sign of things to come for the Stateline.

Let's get into the timing of tonight's storm system. By the late half of this evening, cloudy skies and light precipitation is forecast to spread across the region. Precipitation by 9-10 PM tonight may start out as a mix of rain and snow as temperatures are likely to be in the upper 30s late this evening. As our surface winds switch the northeast, cooler air will filter in towards the surface low allowing for a switchover to all snow. Light snow is likely to fall along and north of I-88 for the majority of the overnight. For the Rockford area specifically, we are going to be placed on the northernmost portion of the storm system, so accumulations around an inch are possible.

The heavier snow bands with this system are likely to develop to the south, especially south of I-88. This could result in accumulations as high as 2" to 3" in portions of Whiteside County, Lee County, and the southern half of Dekalb County. This is why the National Weather Service in both the Quad Cities and Chicago has placed these three counties under a Winter Weather Advisory, that is set to go into effect at 11 PM tonight, expiring by 10 AM tomorrow morning. Now, the heaviest snow for the Stateline is likely to fall from 2 AM to 6-7 AM, most towards our areas to the south. These snow showers will start to taper off in intensity around daybreak tomorrow morning, and should be done by mid-morning.

However, this will bring impacts for the early-day drive for Friday. If you are someone who is deemed essential and have to be traveling to work tomorrow morning, plan on slippery road conditions. As we experienced on Wednesday morning, it only took 0.1" of snow to cause a few issues on the roadways. Bridges and overpasses are likely to be the worst early Friday morning. Thankfully, temperatures climb into the middle and upper 40s by tomorrow afternoon, not only melting any fresh snow we see tomorrow, but improving road conditions. 




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