Above average temperatures to end February

 

Temperatures over the last weekend of February warmed into the 30s and 40s, reaching 41 degrees Sunday afternoon in Rockford. While not significantly above average - average high is 38 degrees - the abundant sunshine made it feel fairly comfortable as we near the end of Meteorological Winter. Meteorological Spring begins Wednesday, March 1st, and is the transition period between Meteorological Winter and Summer. It consists of the three month period of March, April and May. At the beginning of March the average high temperature is right around 40 degrees. But by the time we get to the end of May the average high temperature is in the mid to upper 70s.

The last two days of the month will continue to feature slightly above average temperatures with highs rising into the low to mid 40s; both 45 degrees Monday and Tuesday. The warm up is the result of several fast moving, but mostly dry, low pressure systems moving in from the northwest.

A big ridge of high pressure over the West has positioned the jet stream pretty much right over the Plains and Midwest. This sets up a fairly favorable area for these storm systems to move along. A cold front passing through Sunday will quickly be pulled north as a warm front Monday morning. This will shift surface winds back around to the southwest for much of the afternoon. Another cold front will move through Tuesday before being pulled back north as a warm front Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture with each passing system appears to be relatively weak, limiting any precipitation chances in the short-term.

There may be some light precipitation Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front slides through Wednesday afternoon, stalling just to the south Thursday morning. With a cooler air mass behind the front a chance for a few flurries could be possible during that time.

By Friday afternoon a strong storm system will build across the center of the country as the jet stream is forced back north over the Great Lakes.

This is due to a deep trough (dip) in the jet stream over the West Coast - a pattern flip from earlier in the week. A draw of warm air ahead of the low will be pulled into the region Friday night and Saturday, but so will a significant amount of moisture. Showers are likely to develop during that time, initially beginning Friday night. Surface temperatures may be just cool enough to support some mixed precipitation, especially north of the state line, into Friday evening. Then rain showers will last into Saturday, along with the chance for a few thunderstorms.