Rainy Wednesday Afternoon, Ice & Snow Chances Move in Thursday

Rain Moving In:

Wednesday beings on a dry, but windy note. If you plan on heading out for the morning commute, allow for extra travel time. Winds from sunrise until about 2PM-3PM in the afternoon could gust between 30-40 mph, making for a bumpy drive for those who plan to travelers. This morning's gusty south-southwesterly wind will also play a key role in pumping our atmosphere with moisture, resulting in rain chances as early as the late-morning hours. 

Rain sticks around for the afternoon, picking up in intensity by the evening commute. With that being said, it wouldn't be a bad idea to allow for extra travel time for your late-day drive home. Overall, it does look like the Stateline, especially areas east of Freeport and Amboy, have the potential to pick up .25" to .75" of rain before the changeover. 

A glance at the record books shows that Rockford's daily record rainfall for February 16th is .43" set back in 2006. The potential is there for that record to be shattered by the incoming rain chances. Guidance remains in agreement with the potent cold front sliding through late this evening, allowing the cooling process to commence. This will bring the chance for mixed precipitation briefly before a full changeover to snow occurs by Thursday morning. 

Winter Weather Advisory:

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service has placed our southern counties, Whiteside, Lee, and Dekalb counties, under a Winter Weather Advisory. This advisory will go into effect this evening, lasting into Thursday evening. Guidance does show a 2-3 hour window for a wintry mix before we fully changeover to snow. 

It'll take a little bit for road temperatures to cool down after a day in the 50s, but slick spots will be possible for the morning commute on Thursday. Switching gears to our snowfall potential, models are still trying to hone in on the track of the storm system as it approaches the Midwest and the western Great Lakes. For the past few days, the GFS has been hinting at a more northerly track, placing a portion of the Stateline under the axis of heavier snow. Meanwhile, the EURO and the NAM have remained consistent on a southerly track with the low, placing the heaviest snow south of I-80. 

Snow Potential:

Forecast models this morning however showcased the southerly solution being the one that has a better chance of coming to fruition. With that being said, there is still time for the forecast to change. If this potent low were to take a 20-30 mile wobble to the north, that would bring the heavier snow axis northward, bringing us more snowfall. 

But as of this morning, it looks like the heavier snow is expected to fall south of I-80, with areas along and south of I-88 getting in on 1-4". With winds remaining breezy Thursday afternoon and evening, blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility will create a few headaches for travelers. Adjust your travel plans accordingly. The weather following this winter storm remains dry and chilly into the weekend, then warms back into the 40s starting Sunday.