Valentine's Day Forecast, Gradually Warming into Midweek

Valentine's Day Stats:

It sure was a BITTERLY cold weekend here in the Stateline. After missing the 50-degree mark by a few degrees Friday afternoon, highs both Saturday and Sunday landed 20° to 30° cooler. 

While the cooler-than-average streak is expected to stick around for this year's edition of Valentine's Day, a warmer and more moist air-mass is expected to overtake the area by the middle of the week. But before we jump into the forecast, let's dive into the historical extremes Rockford has experienced on Valentine's Day.

Warmest: 56° (2006)

Coldest: 1° (2021)

Wettest: 0.90" (1906)

Snowiest: 6.0" (1990) 

V-Day Forecast:

Yes, you are reading that correct. It was on this day last year where the Rockford Airport observed it's coldest Valentine's Day on record. Thankfully, we'll be much closer to seasonable levels than the 0-degree mark this time around. 

The day kicks off with a chance for a few flurries thanks to a very weak disturbance tracking overhead before mid-morning. As the day carries on, the cloud cover from this morning is expected to break apart, allowing for some afternoon sunshine. With surface winds being out of the southwest throughout the day, highs will top out in the upper 20s. Tonight starts off with partly cloudy skies, with clouds increasing overnight into Tuesday morning.

Gradually Warming:

Tuesday is really when the warming process starts to become noticeable. Despite a mostly cloudy sky being around for much of the day, an increasing wind out of the south-southeast will push temperatures into the upper 30s. 

Winds are expected to change to the southwest by Wednesday, allowing our highs to climb another 10-degrees close to the 50-degree mark. This warmth will come with plenty of moisture that will set the stage for a soaking rainfall late-Wednesday into Wednesday night. Shortly after that, our winds will shift and ramp up out the northeast following a cold front, allowing temperatures to plunge.

One to Keep an Eye On: 

Because of the significant cooling that takes place, Guidance shows the rain mixing in with some sleet/snow before fully changing over to snow by Thursday morning. Now, the storm itself is currently making it's expected landfall over the Pacific Northwest. Once it's fully over land, we'll have more observations to better understanding the characteristics of this upcoming storm system. 

The biggest uncertainty from model data is the track of the system as it approaches the western Great Lakes along with the snowfall potential.To compare, the GFS or the American models places the heaviest snow over the northern half of Illinois while the EURO or European model places the heavier snowfall axis well to the south of the Stateline. Details such as this will come about the closer we get to the event. Following the departure of this low pressure system, temperatures fall into the 20s into the weekend.