Monday, April 11, 2022

Mainly Dry for National Pet Day, Thunderstorm Chances Arrive Both Tuesday & Wednesday

Weekend Recap:

Well, the beautiful weather we had over the weekend was much-needed wouldn't you say? Especially when you take into account how long the Stateline was stuck in the clouds last week. Not too mention the back to back rain and snow chances that came along for the ride. 

Despite the strong southeasterly wind on Sunday, highs climbed into the lower 60s, making for the first 60-degree day of April. The work week ahead does feature a few days in the 60s. However, the upcoming warmth will eventually pave the way for another round of unsettled weather to makes it way in. One that features the potential for severe weather.

National Pet Day:

First off, Happy National Pet day to all the pets out there. Much like this past weekend, dry conditions persist for our Monday. However, there will be more clouds present and there will also be a chance for a passing shower or two (especially along and south of Interstate 88). 

On the backside of this morning's cold front, winds will turn breezy out of the west, with gusts peaking at 20 mph. Thankfully, not nearly as strong as the winds felt on Sunday. Highs will once again peak in the lower 60s. As high pressure moves in, the cloud cover we see during the day will clear the area, bringing a quiet start to our Tuesday.

Upcoming Storm Chances:

Many dry hours are promised tomorrow. However, a lifting warm front will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 88. The severity of these thunderstorms all depend on how strong the atmospheric "cap" or lid is as the warm front passes through. If any storm were to break said cap, the main concern would be large hail. An even bigger threat for strong to severe storms arrives on Wednesday with the associated cold front. 

Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed the entire region under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Areas to the south of the region have been placed under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5). The biggest discrepancy when it comes to Wednesday's severe threat is the timing of the cold front passage, which the GFS (American) and the EURO (European) models have disagreed on over the past few days. 

The GFS is the quicker of the two, bringing the cold front in during the early afternoon hours. The EURO, which is the solution that we think is more than likely going to occur, brings the cold front into the region by Wednesday evening. This would better give the area a shot at seeing strong to severe storms, with all hazards being on the table. Ahead of these chances, make sure you and your family are prepared. Take the time now to get that severe weather safety plan in check and to get that safe place ready!

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