With high pressure settling yesterday, it didn't take long for our skies to clear out. This allowed for another beautiful and spring-like afternoon with highs peaking in the lower 60s.
Since then, temperatures have tumbled due to a process known as "radiational cooling". This occurs when skies overnight are clear and surface winds are either light or calm, allowing the cooling process to shift into overdrive. On your way out this morning, there will be a bit of chill as temperatures for most are in the lower 30s. Be sure to have on your favorite sweatshirt or jacket before you step out.
Once the sun rises over the horizon, there won't be much to stop our temperatures from soaring into the 60s for the third straight day. Most of our Tuesday will feature dry conditions, with clouds gathering up during the afternoon as a warm front nears.
Guidance does show a round of scattered tracking in towards the end of the evening commute. Embedded in this activity may be a few isolated thunderstorms, more so towards the midnight hour. Severe chances overnight are low as the Storm Prediction Center has continued to keep much of the region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
Wednesday provides a better opportunity for the region to strong to severe storms as the associated cold front prepared to slide through. Again, the timing of the frontal passage is key.
Models this morning were still in disagreement on when said cold front will slide through. Similar to yesterday, the American model brought the frontal boundary into the region a few hours earlier than the European model, which would bring less of a chance for strong to severe storms to materialize. However, current thinking is with the European model on a late-afternoon/early-evening passage, allowing thunderstorms to form. The main window for severe thunderstorms appears to fall between 4PM and 9PM Wednesday.
Per the Storm Prediction Center, much of the area remains under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) displaced directly to our south. Locally, all modes of severe weather would be on the table, with gusty winds the main threat, followed by tornadoes, large hail, and extremely heavy rain.
Once the front is to our east, conditions quiet down but cool down for the second half of the week. The cooler air that filters into the region will bring temperatures down big-time, from the low 70s Wednesday to the upper 40s and low 50s for Thursday and Friday. Typical Midwest weather!
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