Storm chances increases mid-week; Cooler Easter Weekend

 

Skies were able to clear nicely Monday afternoon following a morning that was filled with cloud cover. This resulted in a slow rise in temperatures during the first half of the day, but once the sun came out temperatures were quick to warm into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon.

We'll hang on to the mostly clear sky through much of Monday night with temperatures falling into the mid and upper 30s. Winds will turn light overnight, but increase from the southeast Tuesday afternoon. The cold front that passed through the Stateline late Sunday night/early Monday will begin to lift back north as a warm front late in the day Tuesday, lifting through the Stateline Tuesday night. An increasing low level jet, moisture and lift in the atmosphere could help fuel a few thunderstorms late Tuesday evening, but warmer air quickly moving in above the surface may form a cap - or lid- on the atmosphere which could help limit storm coverage during that time.

Severe weather appears likely further west of the Mississippi River as a strong low and cold front move east from the Plains Tuesday. Thunderstorms are forecast to quickly develop late Tuesday evening, forming into a line of severe storms that'll race east Tuesday night. Storm intensity is expected to decrease over Tuesday as the storms reach the Stateline, most likely leaving us with a few remnant showers Wednesday morning, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm.

The strong cold front will continue to surge east, crossing the Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon. But the timing of the front will really be key in the redevelopment of thunderstorms locally, as well as just how severe they could be come late Wednesday afternoon and evening. If the cold front passes through the Stateline early enough in the day, the atmosphere will not have enough time to destabilize leaving us with a lower threat of severe storms.

However, if the front comes through later in the day - after 4pm - there may be just enough time for the atmosphere to increase instability, leading to a redevelopment of a line of strong/severe storms. If those storms were to form, damaging winds and heavy rain would be our biggest threats. Secondary would be hail, as well as an isolated tornado. That tornado threat may be realized a little further south near low pressure in central Illinois.

Shower/storm activity will be moving out of the region Wednesday night as west winds increase significantly during the day Thursday from the west, gusting to 45-50 mph. After warming into the 60s/70s Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will fall following the cold front, down into the 40s/50s for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures Easter Weekend look to remain below average with highs only in the mid/upper