Warming trend with periods of steady rain next week

 A warmer and wetter pattern change is on the way for much of next week. The upper level flow will turn to come out of the Southwest, pushing a much warmer and moisture-filled air mass our direction. The most abundant moisture begins to set in Monday night into Tuesday, when our potential for steady rain showers will begin. The map below shows our "precipitable water" values, which is a measure of how much water vapor there is in a vertical column of air. When PW values reach an inch or higher, that indicates some very rich moisture, especially for early March standards.

Even meager forcing will be able to shake out some of that moisture in the form of scattered rain showers beginning Monday night or Tuesday morning. With a little bit of cold air still in place, there is a low-end chance for some of this precipitation early Tuesday to fall in the form of light wintry mix. But the bulk of it will come down as rain with temperatures steadily climbing at the surface and in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere. Surface temperatures will reach the upper 40s to 50s starting Wednesday.

The coverage of rain shown above for Tuesday afternoon is fairly scattered, with around 40-60% of the area seeing rain at any given time. We will see similar coverage of rain continue into the middle of the week, including Wednesday and Thursday. There will still be many dry hours through the week, but the main window for steady rain in the near-term looks to be Monday night into Tuesday. Two more systems will pass later in the week, with lesser confidence on timing between Wednesday-Thursday then Friday-Saturday.

Several of these systems could bring some broad soaking rainfalls over the Midwest and Ohio River Valley through the course of the week. Heaviest rain looks to be displaced mainly across Missouri into Central and Southern Illinois/Indiana, with some locations possibly seeing 2-4" of rain next week! Locally in Northern Illinois, projections give us around a 50/50 chance to see around an inch through the course of the week.

Brief cooldown into the weekend transitions into active pattern next week

 

Well yesterday sure did feel nice as consistent sunshine and a southerly wind through the day allowed for temperatures to reach up into the mid 60's! Unfortunately, though, a cold front overnight did sweep through the region which has caused a dramatic change in temperature as we're in the mid 20's to start the weekend. Today will have a bit of chilly feel as we'll be right near freezing which will be accompanied by the chances of a few snow showers.

Through the morning and afternoon, a weak clipper system will pass just to our north which will allow for some snow chances throughout the day. As of now, most snow showers look to remain north of the state line however a few minor accumulation totals in Southern Wisconsin may be possible today. Across Northern Illinois, snow shower chances will be a bit lower however, intermittent snow showers will be possible into the afternoon today, but accumulation totals will remain near zero or very minimal. 
 

Shifting the focus into next week, we'll see consistent southwesterly flow starting late Monday night and into Tuesday which will allow for warmer temperatures along with higher atmospheric moisture content. Combining that with a stronger and more active jet stream, precipitation chances look to be higher heading into the middle of the week. 

Sharp cool-down with few snow showers this weekend

 After reaching the mid-60s Friday, it will be a much more winter-like weekend with highs in the 30s and scattered chances for snow showers. As a broad area of cooler air spreads Southward from the Northern Plains, a narrow axis of moisture will intersect it, developing some snow showers.

The steadiest of these snow showers will be centered along and North of highway 20 in far Northern Illinois up through Southern Wisconsin, but a few light snow showers may be possible as far South as I-88 or even I-80. The timing of snow will be mainly between late morning and early evening.

In total, up to 1-2" may come down across parts of Southern Wisconsin and far Northern Illinois, with a sharp gradient to little/no accumulation further South of Highway 20 and I-88. Impacts to roadways will be somewhat limited due to the warm ground from the 60-degree highs the day before. However, a few slick spots will be possible as temperatures drop into the low 20s and teens Sunday morning.

Another passing system will keep the chill going through Sunday and bring another narrow axis snow showers Sunday night into Monday. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will likely limit how much snow may reach this far North, keeping the majority if not all of the snow South of I-80 and into Central Illinois. The large majority of the Stateline will remain dry between Sunday and Monday afternoon.

A pattern change is on the way toward the middle and end of next week. A more Southwesterly flow aloft will force more moisture and warmth our direction, leading to increasing rain chances the later and later into next week you go. While it will not be raining the entire time, pockets of soaking rains with over 1-2" of rain may be possible across parts of Central and Southern Illinois. The Northward extent of the beneficial rainfall is still uncertain this far out. It also comes with a subtle warm up, as temperatures return to the 40s and 50s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Elevated brush fire risk with strong winds Friday afternoon

 A much milder air mass has pushed temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the Stateline as of 2PM, very warm for late February standards! But this has not come with much moisture, as dew point temperatures are still sitting below 30° across the area. As a result, relative humidity is around 20-30% for many.

Wind gusts have not been all that strong but may still push 25+ mph at times this afternoon, mostly from the West-Southwest then West-Northwest. While not strong enough for substantial fire danger, this will be strong enough to promote an elevated brush fire risk. Be sure to avoid outdoor burning this afternoon!

Northern Illinois sees snow chances sneak back into the forecast

Windy, Warm Friday: 

Yesterday turned out to be a bit more comfortable, with partial sunshine with highs in the low 40s. The warming trend continues today, and Rockford could log its fourth 60-degree day of 2026. 

However, as has been the case for much of the week, gusty winds will accompany today's warm up. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible, especially this afternoon as a cold front approaches. 

Cooler Weekend:

After this evening's frontal passage, winds take a turn to the north, ushering in much cooler air for Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs will run 5 to 10 degrees below average, topping out in the low 30s. 

 

  

Snow Chances Return:

With the cooler temperatures this weekend comes a more active stretch of weather, driven by a pair of clipper systems. The first is scheduled to pass through during the day Saturday with the second taking a more southerly track, pushing through central Illinois Sunday night into Monday. 

  

The potential for minor accumulations with the first clipper system, maybe 1"-2", will be highest near and north of the IL/WI border. 

Locales that sit along and south of highway 20 may see a scattered batch of snow resulting in a dusting to 1". Snow could start falling as early as 8-9AM, with chances staying put for much of the afternoon. As of right now, impacts and accumulations with clipper system #2 look minor thanks to the system's southerly track. But again, keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend as any bump to the north would heighten snow chances locally.

Warm and active pattern kicks off meteorological spring

 Our recent cool and somewhat dry pattern will flip on its head as we head into the beginning of March, otherwise known as meteorological spring. In the upper levels, the jet stream will turn to a Southwest flow, pushing warmer and moist air our direction beginning around mid-next week.

This will bring a steady rise in precipitation chances, particularly beginning Wednesday night. Thursday into next weekend will be increasingly favorable for higher coverage of potential precipitation with the higher moisture moving our direction. By late-week, each day will feature at least a scattered chance for liquid rain, particularly Thursday into the weekend.

This pattern change is also supported by the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. Their forecast gives us a 50-70% chance to see above average precipitation between next Wednesday into the following weekend, or March 4th-8th. Current models have been trending up, giving us a better and better chance to see more than an inch of rain now through March 8th. Any rainfall we see will greatly help with growing drought conditions across the Stateline, as we have been very dry to start 2026.

Northern Illinois flirts with 60° ahead of sharp weekend drop

Windy Stretch: 

Strong winds have been a big story line in the weather department the past few days, and they'll continue to be a key story as we approach the weekend. 

 

  

Looking Ahead:

Similar to yesterday, winds won't be as strong as the day prior. However, with a "bubble" of high pressure sliding to the east of the region, winds will blow more out of the southwest today. That, along with a partly cloudy sky will allow high temperatures to surge out of the 30s and into the low 40s. 

Warm, Windy Friday:

Temperatures Friday morning will end up warmer, landing in the upper 20s. With the milder beginning, increasing southwesterly wind, and partial sun, the stage is set for an unseasonably warm afternoon with highs hovering around the 60°. IF we are able to hit that mark, it would be the 4th time this year that Rockford has observed 60° weather.   

Weekend Outlook: 

Now, winds will pack a punch to round out the work week as a cold front approaches. At times, we could see winds upwards of 35 mph. This wind will change to the north and northeast once the cold front sweeps through, resulting in a cooler weekend. Temperatures will fall back into the low 30s Saturday and may even struggle to exit the 20s on Sunday.
 

 

High pressure brings cooler stretch, limited precipitation chances

 Behind Friday's cold front, temperatures will be dropping back toward average or below through the weekend and into next week. High pressure will be settling in across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through early next week, working to prevent moisture from working Northward.

There is a better chance for snow locally Saturday, but the next system between Sunday and Monday has shown some Southerly trends. This low pressure will have more moisture to work with, but the blocking high pressure will "stop" abundant moisture from reaching this far North, essentially limiting widespread snow chances to areas South of I-80 for Sunday-Monday.

The bulk of passing weather systems over the next week will take similar tracks with much more broad and widespread precipitation chances across the Ohio River Valley, well to our South. A few systems may graze the area, but precipitation will not be widespread or long-lasting here locally.

A pattern change looks to be on the way starting mid to late next week. A more Southwest direction in the upper levels of the atmosphere will work to force a warmer and moisture-laden air mass our direction over the first week or two of March. There still could be snow chances in some of these systems, but the warmer pattern seems to suggest more rain than snow at this time.

Temperatures surge upward following a chilly Wednesday

Windy February: 

February hasn't just been very dry across northern Illinois, there's also been a lot of wind. Rockford has already logged 7 days with a peak gust of 30 mph or higher, including yesterday.

 

  

Cooler Wednesday:

Winds will stay breezy today, but they'll be coming out of a cooler direction thanks to the cold front that came through Tuesday evening. As a result, we can expect a cooler afternoon with highs being limited to the low 30s under partly cloudy skies. 

  

A passing clipper system to our west could bring a brief chance for a flurry or snow showers overnight into Thursday morning. However, the system's track look far enough to the southwest that any chance for snow would remain quite low. 

 

Late-Week Warmup: 

Fortunately, this is the coolest day of the remaining days of the work week. As an area of high pressure shifts to the east of the Stateline by Thursday, winds will be warmer, allowing temperatures to climb significantly  ahead of the weekend. Afternoon highs will reach the low 40s Thursday and then surge into the upper 50s Friday. This warm up also occurs ahead of another cold front which will knock temperatures down for Saturday and Sunday.

Running dry: Month-to-date snow and precipitation lacking

 

The snow season got off to a very quick start late November and December, but things have really dried out over the last month and a half. For the month of February, Rockford has only received 0.1 inches of snow, putting us just over a seven-inch deficit for the month and nearly a 14-inch deficit since the start of Meteorological Winter. This places us within the top five least snowiest Februarys on record, month-to-date. And precipitation isn't far behind with only 0.11 inches for the month of February, a 1.24-inch deficit for the month and a 2.17-inch deficit since December 1st.

The hopes of any meaningful precipitation in the short-term look fairly limited. There were a few snow flurries, graupel, and very light rain showers that passed through in a scattered fashion across northern Illinois, but we look to remain mostly dry through the end of the week. There are a couple systems as we enter into the month of March that could bring us some precipitation, including the chance for some snow, but our overall precipitation chances are somewhat limited and depend on the track of these individual storm systems.

The lack in precipitation has led to drier than normal conditions, raising the fire risk when temperatures climb and the wind picks up. The latest drought monitor shows drier than normal conditions across much of northern Illinois, with moderate drought conditions across parts of Winnebago, Ogle, Lee, Whiteside, Carroll, Stephenson, and Jo Daviess counties. This also extends up into Green County in southern Wisconsin.

The further we get into the winter season, and closer to we get to spring, without much precipitation the bigger impacts that'll likely have on the planting and growing season. Going into the spring season in a deficit puts more stress on the ground, less moisture for the plants/crops to utilize while growing and can further increase the drought and heat during the spring and summer months. Ongoing drought conditions can also lead to longer stretches of heat during heat waves, further increasing the drought - along with the heat. It's cycle we do not want to get into this spring and summer.

Few flurries/light showers possible Tuesday evening

 

Temperatures fell short of their full potential Tuesday afternoon, despite the gusty wind from the south. Increasing cloud cover kept us in the low 30s for most of the afternoon with wind chills in the 20s. It wasn't until late afternoon numbers were able to climb into the upper 30s. But even then, it didn't feel the warmest thanks to the gusty wind.

A cold front moving through the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes has brought with it a few snow showers and light rain. However, not everyone is experiencing the precipitation this evening. To the north in Wisconsin, snow has been falling north of Madison and Milwaukee causing some issues on the roads. To the south, not much has been able to reach the surface thanks to some drier air. The current precipitation moving through northern Illinois will remain very light and scattered.

The cold front will pass later this evening taking the precipitation chance south with it. Skies will turn partly cloudy overnight with overnight lows dipping into the 20s, rising into the 30s Wednesday.

Blizzard of 2026 shatters snowfall records across the east coast

Historic Snowfall:

A powerful blizzard riding up the eastern seaboard Monday left behind a path of shattered snowfall records. One of the most remarkable totals came from Providence, Rhode Island, where an astounding 35.5" were observed. This obliterated Providence's previous record of 3.8" set back in 1967. 

 

Other areas that wound up with new snowfall records include my hometown of Islip, NY, Boston, MA, Bridgeport, CT, and Central Park! 

In fact, Islip's Airport beat it's previous snowfall record by an incredible 12.9". 

 

Snowfall Reports: 

In the end, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Long Island wound up with the highest totals. 

Warwick, RI - 36.2"

Norton, MA - 31.8"

Babylon, NY - 29.5"  

 

Get this. Spots along the east coast saw more snow in a 48 hour period than Rockford has seen during the 2025-2026 snow season. Rockford's total as of this morning - 24.2".  

 

Winds ramp up across northern Illinois ahead of approaching cold front

Strong Winds Return: 

Northern Illinois managed to see some sunshine on Monday, but it was paired with a bitterly cold wind that kept highs in the upper 20s.

Winds will be warmer and stronger today, with gusts reaching 35 to 40 mph. The strongest winds are will occur through the morning and early afternoon, and this increased flow will help boost our temperatures, resulting in a warmer afternoon.  

Ahead of this evening's cold front, afternoon highs will rise into the upper 30s and low 40s. The cold front may also bring a brief, spotty rain-snow mix, with the highest precipitation chance occurring north of the Illinois-Wisconsin border. 

Once the front is to our southeast, skies will clear into the overnight hours. This will leave us dry but breezy with lows falling into the low 20s. 

Pre-Weekend Warmup:

Wednesday will be the coolest day of the next 5 as highs only reach the low 30s. After that, we'll see another temperature rise that will leave us near the 40° mark Thursday, then low 50s Friday. Similar to today's warm up, Friday's features a robust wind ahead of a secondary cold front. 
 

Winds increase Tuesday ahead of brief warm-up

 

As Meteorologist Joey Marino mentioned Monday morning, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will experience a few temperature swings this week, with the first arriving Tuesday. But the warm-up will also come with a rather gusty southwest wind, making it feel cooler thanks to the lack of sunshine.

Clouds will slowly move in Monday night ahead of a warm front that'll cross the Stateline Tuesday morning. This will turn winds to the southwest,

bringing temperatures close to 40 degrees. But the increase in temperature will also come with an increase in wind, at times gusting 35-40 mph. This is all due to an area of low pressure that'll move north of the region, into the Great Lakes Tuesday night. Southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front that'll sweep across the Stateline Tuesday evening. Winds will then turn to the northwest behind the front, remaining gusty into Wednesday morning.

The front will bring with it only a small chance for precipitation mid-day before drying out Tuesday evening. A light mix of sprinkles/light rain, graupel (ice pellets) and/or flurries will be possible. But I anticipate very minimal impacts from this for the afternoon.

Temperatures will drop again Tuesday night down into the 20s, rising only into low 30s Wednesday afternoon. With a northwest breeze in the morning wind chills will fall into the single digits.

Big temperature swings ahead for northern Illinois

Weekend Comparison:

"False spring" has unfortunately come to a close as afternoon highs this past weekend ended up MUCH cooler than the previous weekend.  

Highs at the Rockford Airport went from low 50s and low 60s back to January standards. 

 

Ups & Downs: 

Today, still January-like. The day even begins with wind chill values near or below zero. So make sure to pack those layers this morning. 

High pressure close by will give us plenty of sunshine from start to finish. However, we hang on to a rather cold wind out of the northwest. This will once again leave highs in the upper 20s while also leaving wind chills in the teens this afternoon.  

We'll see winds take a turn to the southwest Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts across the region may reach 35 to 40 mph, helping to boost high temperatures near the 40° mark. 

 With the cold front as well will come the chance for a rain/snow mix or a few snow showers. Chances will be highest late in the afternoon into the evening with skies clearing up some Tuesday night. Overnight lows will end up in the upper teens tonight, then possibly again into Wednesday morning. 

Behind Tuesday's frontal passage, winds shift to the north and northwest for Wednesday, limiting highs to the low 30s and then mid 30s for Thursday. The warmest air is scheduled to arrive Friday as winds turn back to the southwest, boosting temperatures into the upper 40s, close to the 50° mark. 

Subzero wind chills possible Monday morning, sunshine by afternoon

 It will be another cold and breezy night with North winds around 10-20 mph through the night. Clouds will thin out a bit after midnight, dropping temperatures into the low/mid teens. Wind chills will drop toward zero for most of the night.

Tomorrow will see winds ease up a bit through the evening as high pressure moves over the area. It will feel much warmer with that lighter wind by the afternoon and more sunshine, but high temperatures will remain in the 20s for the third straight day. Wind chills will still make it feel like the teens nearly all day.

High pressure keeps us dry through Monday night, but another passing clipper system will bring a narrow window for some snow showers or light wintry mix. This will develop along a cold front early Tuesday afternoon, with the bulk of the precipitation falling across Wisconsin. This also comes with another round of strong winds but from the Southwest this time. High temperatures will reach near 40 degrees on Tuesday.

A more widespread chance for precipitation arrives mid-week with a broader chance for snow locally. There is still a lot of time for this system to change course, but additional snow showers may be possible starting Wednesday night into Thursday.