Apart from Wednesday's notably strong southwesterly wind, the combination of sunshine and 60° warmth made for another gorgeous afternoon.
As we move into Thursday, this is when we enter a slightly more active and cooler weather pattern. Most of the day Thursday will be dry, though we can expect clouds to increase early on. With the current track of our next low pressure system, surface flow will be out of the northeast, resulting in cooler high temperatures. Most locales will peak in the low to mid 50s. Still mild, but not as warm as yesterday.
In their latest round of outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center places the highest severe potential well south of the Stateline area. Areas east of St. Louis are under a level 2 Slight Risk for severe storms.
It's in these areas where the warm front will be the focal point for strong to severe storms, allowing all hazards to be on the table. Atmospheric energy will be higher as well as moisture levels. Locally, a level 1 Marginal Risk is in place for areas like Sterling, Dixon, Rochelle, DeKalb, and Amboy.
Shower and storm chances locally will be tied to the surface low itself and should begin to increase late in the afternoon into the evening. The biggest concern with any severe storm will be large hail.
As colder air wraps around the surface low, rain will turn to the rain/snow mix and then to all wet snow by the time we get into Friday morning. Given the warm past few days, Thursday's rain, and temperatures still only in the low 30s, accumulations will be kept to a minimum (maybe up to a half-inch). Friday's morning commute may be a bit slow with lingering snow showers and reduced visibility with winds picking up.
Cooler Moving Forward:
After today, it's back to reality as afternoon highs return to the 30s. Mid to upper 30s into the weekend with low 30s into early next week.
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