While Thursday night's severe weather event seems relatively isolated in nature, we could be looking at a more widespread chance for storms Monday. There are several things that forecasters look at to identify potential for severe weather. The primary ingredients include moisture, instability, lift, and wind shear.
Two ingredients will be met with a "shortwave" in the jet stream that looks to push overhead toward Monday. This will provide the lift along a surface low pressure system and the necessary wind shear to keep storms going. Broader forcing and ideal timing of storms arriving in the day will allow for a more widespread storm potential compared to Thursday night's storm potential.
The other two ingredients are related to moisture. Abundant gulf moisture will approach the area Monday, tugged Northward along that shortwave. That will allow for more widespread rain with also some heavier rain possible. Right now, the most aggressive instability, or storm energy, looks to be centered across Central Illinois. But the Northern fringes may produce severe weather locally as well. There are still several factors that will need to fall into place before this severe threat would come to fruition.
While we are still a few days out, the Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a broad region for severe weather potential, extending up to far Southern Wisconsin with the 15% risk, which is equivalent to a Level 2/5 Slight risk when it comes to severe weather probabilities. A 30% risk extends across Southern Illinois into Missouri and areas South. That is equivalent to a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk. While we are still more than a few days out, Monday will need to be a day to watch for widespread storms and potential for severe weather!
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