[12:00AM UPDATE] Radar is much more quiet tonight and will remain quiet through Friday morning. There were quite a few storm reports scattered around Carroll, Ogle, and Northwest Lee Counties in Illinois, mainly with high wind gusts and/or wind damage.
[9:30PM UPDATE] Storms continue to wind down, with some small hail and lightning still possible in DeKalb and McHenry County. But the severe weather threat has come to an end. The tornado watch has since been cancelled across the entire area.
[7:40PM UPDATE] Most of the storms continue to push through the Eastern part of the Stateline with a few pockets of severe winds upwards of 60-70 mph possible in parts of Walworth County, McHenry County, and Southern DeKalb County. Further West, the line of storms in Ogle and Lee Counties remain just below severe limits but may still be capable of producing up to 50 mph winds.
[5:50PM UPDATE] A new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Rock County in Southern Wisconsin until 6:45PM. This storm is moving Northeast at 40 mph. This storm is capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and quarter sized hail. A tornado is also possible but not imminent.
[5:30PM UPDATE] A tornado warning has been issued for Western Carroll County, including the town of Savanna until 6:15PM. This storm capable of producing a tornado is in Eastern Iowa but moving West at 50 mph. Radar indicated rotation and half dollar sized hail are the threats with this storm. Take shelter if you are under this warning!
[5:20PM UPDATE] Severe thunderstorm warnings have now been issued for Carroll and Whiteside Counties until 6PM and 6:15PM respectively. Storms are moving Northeast at 45 mph and are capable of producing 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail. A tornado is also possible, but not imminent.
[4:45PM UPDATE] A few isolated showers have attempted to develop locally, but the higher threat is with storms will arrive along the Mississippi River shortly after 5PM. Storms will still reach the I-39 corridor by 6-7PM, then exit after 9PM to the East. Rotation has been shown in these storms, and they are moving into a charged environment favorable for rotation. Tornado watch remains in effect until 8PM for the entire Stateline.
[3:00PM UPDATE] Latest satellite and radar shows the dry slot moving into Eastern Iowa with bright sunshine, heating the surface up rather quickly. This fuel is already producing some severe thunderstorms in South-Central Iowa, which will lift Northeast through over the next few hours. Our primary severe threat now runs from 5PM-9PM from West to East. Tornado watch is currently in effect until 8PM.
[1:45PM UPDATE]: A tornado watch is now out for all of our Stateline counties until 8PM this evening. Severe storms will increase in coverage and intensity through the late afternoon, which could include a few tornadoes.
[1:30PM] It has been a very rainy start to the day with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. But that is set to change quickly this afternoon as a warm front pulls through the Stateline, sending temperatures into the 60s. How quickly this arrives will be the main driver behind how strong our afternoon and evening storms could be.
The expectation is still that we will see some dry time this afternoon, and maybe even a few peeks of sunshine. That would aid to destabilize the atmosphere -- or provide the necessary fuel for thunderstorm development. That dry slot is currently positioned in Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri.
Once that arrives, temperatures will soar along with thunderstorm fuel. We may see a few storms develop out ahead of this dry slot between 2-3PM on the leading edge of our instability. Some of these could turn strong to severe, but that is not the main window we are watching for.
The line of storms in Western Iowa behind the dry slot will likely be the main show, and it looks to arrive near the I-39 corridor between 7-8PM before exiting the area after 9PM. This may be on a weakening trend as it arrives with the loss of daytime heating and potentially outrunning the best energy. But that will be the window we will need to watch for all hazards, including some tornadoes.
As we have been discussing, there are several things that must fall into place for the severe thunderstorm risk to be fully realized, but the ingredients are in place for a very active evening of severe weather. Another thing I will also note: storms will be traveling at potentially 60 mph, which will leave you less time to seek shelter in the event a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued. So, remain weather aware for the rest of the evening and we will be sure to keep you posted with updates throughout the day!
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