We're gearing up for not only an active morning but also a very active afternoon as showers and eventual strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the region throughout the day. As of now, rain showers that started around 10 p.m. last night have continued to dump consistent rainfall through the early morning and are expected to continue possibly into the early afternoon.
Showers as well as a few isolated thunderstorms will continue across the region through 11 p.m. today however we do look to at least dry out into the early afternoon as our next warm front lifts through. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 60's by 12-1 p.m. while instability will start to build into the afternoon with any clear skies we may see.
In terms of our severe thunderstorm threat, our probabilities have remained unchanged as an Enhanced 3/5 risk continues for this afternoon and evening. This signifies that the Storm Prediction Center has confidence that multiple severe thunderstorms will occur this evening with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as the primary hazards.
Although the Enhanced risk is rather large, each threat type has both different probabilities as well as covering different regions. Our tornado risk has been trimmed a bit since last night; however, our Enhanced tornado risk does outline most of the state line and areas further west. Storm motions will be in excess of 60 mph today so any tornado that may form will be fast moving and may be strong (up to EF2) as faster storm motions often add strength to a tornado. We also have an Enhanced Wind Risk this evening which would favor storms forming along the cold front this evening especially if storms become more clustered. In any case, any strong thunderstorm that occurs today will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph.
As we head into the afternoon there will be two main timeframes we'll be watching for strong to severe thunderstorms. The first of which will arrive between 12 pm to 3 pm as instability begins to build. During this round our atmosphere isn't expected to be the strongest yet, however we could still see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. Thanks to limited instability we'll see mainly a damaging wind gusts threat through the early afternoon, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.
Our focus will then shift to the second round of storms expected to move. During this time, instability is expected to grow a bit more which will provide slightly better energy for thunderstorms that do occur. At this time as well, our winds will begin to turn with height which may allow a few storms to rotate. Because of this, our tornado threat will be higher between 3 pm to 9 pm later today along with damaging wind gusts and some large hail.
As the cold front begins to move in closer to 8 pm and possibly later near 10 pm we may still see an isolated thunderstorm if any instability can stick around. However, at this time, instability will be decreasing as we lose our sunshine so storms will be on a weakening trend although a damaging wind gust threat cannot be ruled out this evening.
To sum everything up, we'll be monitoring two separate rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the strongest of the two expected to arrive after 3 pm. On the flip side, there is still a chance thunderstorms today are weaker or not as widespread as forecasted. If our morning showers/storms stick around until the afternoon we may see our chances not as significant due to limited instability. We could also see storms develop too far west for them to be severe by the time they reach the region and in a similar case, storms may cluster causing them to fight for available energy. Either way, it'll be crucial to keep an eye on watches and warnings this afternoon/evening!
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