NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

According to NOAA, an active to extremely active hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, with 14 to 23 named storms, 8 to 14 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 3 to 7 of them possibly becoming major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). 

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes due to these factors:

Upper atmospheric winds will be conducive for storms.  Wind shear, which can tear storms apart, is expected to be weaker since El Nino is dissipating in the eastern Pacific.  Stronger wind shear during the 2009 hurricane season helped to suppress storm development.


Warm Atlantic Ocean Water.  Sea surface temperature are expected to remain above average where storms often form.  Record warm temperatures are now present in this region.

 High activity era continues.  Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurrican season.  Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center - "The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be.  Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer.  We are currently in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasing favorable for La Nina to develop."