Monday, January 3, 2011

Middle of the Month Could be Cold

The first week of January will see temperatures at or slightly below average but that could be changing if this current forecast pans out.  As we head into next week temperatures might take a nose dive well below average and stay there through mid-January.  The 6-10 and even 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have all of the U.S sitting below average during this time period.  The reason, it looks like we may have a polar low move over Greenland which would cause the Arctic Oscillation to fall negative causing the jetstream to dig well south.  This would allow some very cold, arctic air to move straight down into the Gulf states. 
The second graphic is the observed height anomalies of the Arctic Oscillation and then the forecast anomalies (in red) which would take us to the middle of the month.  What I want you to notice is how this forecast takes us well below zero indicating a strong negative phase which could mean some very cold air across the Stateline.

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