Mild Weather ahead of a Big Pattern Change

If you have a lot to do as we approach Christmas, you get a little help from the weather! Forecast looks to stay mainly dry, but also mild. Temperatures have the potential to reach the 40° mark Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Upper level ridging through the weekend helps to keep the forecast dry and warm. Also at this time of the year, we typically have a few inches of snow of the ground. While the snow makes for beautiful scenery, it also keeps temperatures colder. With the lack of snow on the ground, we're actually able to stay 'warmer'.

However, Global ensemble guidance has been hinting at a big change in the weather pattern, that would mean big changes for the Stateline as well. The upper level jet looks to take a big dive south across the center of the county in the days leading up to Christmas. This would dislodge cold Canadian and Arctic air and bring it as far south as Texas. Ridging in the jet would keep temperatures above average across the southeast and near Alaska as well.

Not only would it bring big temperature swings across the Stateline, but it will also bring a more active jet stream pattern. With the jet lifting up near southern Illinois and the Ohio River Valley, we would be in the favored area for precipitation. With the low passing to the south, we'd be on the cold side of the system which would put us in the area for snow fall. This would keep the possibility of a white Christmas for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin in play.

This pattern would also make it feel more like winter, and its almost officially winter! Only a week away from the official start of winter and only eleven days from Christmas!