Thunderstorms over eastern Iowa have had a hard time making it much past the Mississippi River Wednesday evening. There have been a few strong to severe thunderstorms to the north in Wisconsin and near the Quad Cities, mostly producing gusty winds and small hail. The storm complex near the Quad Cities hasn't moved much this evening, prompting Flash Flood Warnings. Radar estimates of over three inches of rain have fallen in that area.
With the cold front still to our west, I do think we will see widely scattered thunderstorms overnight. But the overall coverage doesn't look too significant. The likely reason why thunderstorms have had a hard time making much progress to the east is due to a warm layer air aloft over northern Illinois.
The map on the left is an analysis of temperatures and pressure at the 700mb level -roughly 10,000ft above. This is a good level to look at to help identify where temperatures may be a bit too 'warm' for air to rise to begin or sustain thunderstorms. Temperatures at or above 10 degrees Celsius usually indicate a cap, or lid, in the atmosphere. Temperatures around 10 degrees Celsius are found over northern Illinois, likely not allowing storms to the west to move east.
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