Abnormally dry conditions develop across the Stateline

 The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows an increase in abnormally dry conditions from last week to this week. Last week only 25 percent of the state was considered abnormally dry. This week that number rose to just under 81 percent. Drought conditions continue across the state of Wisconsin, with moderate and severe drought conditions found across the southwest and central/northern part of the state.

The warm and dry February has been a contributing factor to the development of the dry conditions, along with the overall lack of snowfall for the winter season.

For February, only 0.29 inches of precipitation was recorded. This is a deficit of 1.34 inches. For snowfall that deficit grows even further with just one inch of snow being recorded. This is a deficit of 7.5 inches.

For the entire winter season (December, January, February) precipitation added up to 5.7 inches, which is pretty much right where we should be for the season. But for snowfall, we ended 9.1 inches below average.

The weekend looks to stay dry and warm with temperatures rising back into the 60s and 70s with a gusty southerly wind. Rain chances do return early next week, with the possibility of a little more of a wet pattern developing during the beginning of March.

60s and 70s return for the first weekend of Meteorological Spring

As we prepare to close the books on Meteorological Winter, we look back at a season that for the most part had more of a spring-like feel to it. 

The only month that participated in winter's teeth-chattering shenanigans was January, and that's all thanks to two potent winter storms and an Arctic blast. Otherwise, the Stateline's weather headlines have been all about unseasonably warm spells. So much so that both February and this winter will go down as the warmest on record.

Wednesday's bitter cold thankfully doesn't look to continue into today as winds will be more out of the south-southwest. That, along with sun-filled skies will allow temperatures to climb well into the 40s. 

Today's warm breeze will also play a role in a elevated risk for wildfires to spread. While the threat today isn't nearly as significant as Monday, it’s at least something to monitor. High pressure keeps us quiet overnight, with temperatures falling into the low 30s by daybreak Friday. 

Forecast models then show a weak disturbance ejecting from the southwest U.S, landing in central IL by mid-day Friday. Most if not all the shower activity with this system will remain to our south. 

All it will do locally is add a few clouds to our skies. Highs will continue to trend upward, landing in the low 50s for most locales. 

This weekend's forecast, even better. Flow remains out of the south and southwest, pushing temperatures back into the 60s and 70s. With this weekend's warmth comes a good amount of vitamin D. Our next best chance for rain and even a few thunderstorms doesn't arrive until Monday. 

Powerful cold front briefly slams the door on 70° warmth

When I take a look at all that has happened over the last 24 hours, all I have to say is wow. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin has seen it all from historic warmth to severe storms, to wind-driven snow to single-digit chills.

What's even more mind-boggling is that temperatures Wednesday afternoon will run a whopping 45° to 50° colder than 24 hours prior. Long story short, that heavier coat that has been collecting dust is going to come in handy throughout the day. 

As the last of yesterday's storm system exits, clouds will decrease into the afternoon. Despite sun-filled skies, much colder air aloft and a cold northwesterly wind will limit highs to the upper 20s.
 
To make matters slightly worse, wind chill values will be stuck in the upper single-digits and the lower teens for much of the day Wednesday. Again, bundle up! With high pressure sitting to our south, skies remain mostly clear overnight, with temperatures falling back in the upper teens before daybreak. 

Forecast models then show this high pressure system shifting to our east by Thursday afternoon. What does this mean? Southwest flow returns.

This will allow temperatures to climb back into the 40s tomorrow, and then low 50s Friday. 

With a weak disturbance sliding into central Illinois, Friday does feature more clouds as well as a slim chance for a passing shower or two.

Tornado watch issued for some of the viewing area Tuesday

 

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for the following counties until 10pm Tuesday: Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, and Whiteside. Very large hail up to baseball sized, isolated tornadoes, and strong winds will be possible.

Low pressure located across northern Missouri will move to the northeast through sunset. As it does, a boundary defined by higher moisture will also move to the northeast. Thunderstorms are likely to develop southwest of Rockford, near Whiteside and Lee counties, over the next couple of hours. Additional thunderstorms may form over portions of Ogle and DeKalb counties by 5pm-6pm. These storms could be capable of producing large hail. The tornado threat during this time is low, but it is there. That tornado threat will increase after sunset, most likely to the south of the viewing area, but locations near I-88 will need to be monitored closely this evening.

A strong cold front coming in tonight will cause temperatures to drop quickly, but also bringing an end to our severe weather threat by 9pm/10pm.

Record warmth, severe storms, snow all likely in the next 24 hours

If you thought 60s was a lovely gift, mother nature threw a 70-degree day our way Monday. 

Officially, Rockford peaked at 73°, which shattered our daily record high as well as our all-time record high for the month of February.

Guess what? There's more where that came from. If your morning routine takes you out the door early, you'll notice how much warmer it feels. 

Temperatures prior to sunrise are sitting in the upper 40s and low 50s, which is a whopping 15°-25° warmer than our "out the door" temperatures Monday. In a similar fashion to Monday, partial sunshine and southwest winds will allow highs to peak in the low to possibly mid 70s this afternoon. Our forecast high is 74°, which would shatter our daily record high and the all-time record high set yesterday. That's extremely impressive.

Unlike Monday, wildfires won't be a concern. With that being said, the concern does shift to the potential for strong to severe storms this evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center continues to keep the southeastern half of the viewing area (areas south and east of Rockford) under a level 2 slight risk. Those north and west of the Rockford metro, minus Jo-Daviess County and half of Green County, remain under a level 1 Marginal Risk. 

An area of low pressure swinging into northern Illinois will result in two rounds of storms late this afternoon into the evening. 

The first is associated with a pseudo-dryline, or a boundary that separates the moist and dry air. Dryline boundaries are more known for being classic supercell producers in the central and southern plains. This threat will primarily be focused to our south and east in areas south of Chicago. 

The second round, which may be more local, will spark up along the associated cold front. As we've discussed yesterday, limiting factors such as the capping inversion as well as moisture may limit our thunderstorm potential this evening. If we do manage to see storms pop up, large hail and a tornado or two will be the biggest concerns. 

Post-cold front, temperatures plunge into Wednesday, landing in the low 20s. Along with the incoming cold comes a chance for scattered snow showers, which should only last into sunrise. 

A rather gusty northwesterly wind will limit highs to the upper 20s Wednesday afternoon. Believe it or not, there is some good news with the upcoming cool down. It's only brief as highs will return to the 40s and 50s to round out the current work week.

Red Flag Warning in place for all of northern Illinois

Record warmth and fire weather kick off what is to be an extremely active week of weather.

From 12PM to 6PM today, all of northern Illinois will be under a RED FLAG WARNING. The combination of a strong southerly wind, low relative humidity, and temperatures in the upper 60s will make for a very favorable environment for wildfires to spread. Avoid any plans to burn this afternoon.

That warm southerly wind will also play a huge role into today's record warmth as temperatures are expected to soar well into the 60s. 

Our forecast high of 69° will completely obliterate today's record high of 62° from 2000. Winds tonight won't be as strong but remain warm out of the south as a warm front lifts through. 

With that warm front could come the opportunity for an isolated shower, possibly an isolated thunderstorm into early Tuesday. Another Rockford record is likely to fall overnight as low temperatures only look to fall into the upper 40s. °.

Tuesday features a similar unseasonably warm afternoon as highs will once again peak in the upper 60s, close to the 70° mark . 

To put into perspective how warm this stretch will be, our all-time record high for February is 70° set on February 25th, 2000 and then again on February 22nd, 2017. Either today or tomorrow has a decent opportunity to tie that historic mark.

Record warmth returns early this week

 

It was a tale of two seasons this weekend with highs Saturday warming into the mid-30s, more typical for late February, but highs Sunday warming into the 60s! The well above average warmth will carry over into the start of the week, but a quick drop in temperatures can be expected mid-week, following another warmup by the end of the week.

Cloud cover has been on the increase for the last few hours thanks to the arrival of a cold front. But given the dry air mass ahead of the front, clouds are the only impact we'll see from the passing front. As high pressure moves in overnight skies will clear once again with lows falling into the low 30s.

A northeast wind will be quick to shift back around to the south, swiftly warming temperatures into the mid and upper 60s Monday. The current forecast high for Rockford is 68 degrees. The record high for February 26th is 62 degrees set back in 2000. But we don't stop there with the warmth as Tuesday's high will also climb into the upper 60s. The record high for the 27th of February is 68 degrees which was set back in 1976. Not only that, but it's possible we break the record warm low for the 27th, but that all depends on just how fast the cold air moves in behind a powerful cold front Tuesday night. The warm record low is 38 degrees set back in 1944.

What's also interesting is that we could come close to the all-time record high temperature for the month of February both Monday and Tuesday. That currently sits at 70 degrees which was set back on February 22nd, 2017! Prior to that, the last time we had a 70-degree day during the month of February was in 2000 on the 25th! To go even further, the all-time record warm low for the month of February is 48 degrees which was set on February 22nd, 1930! We could be nearing some incredible warmth for the month, but it will all come crashing to an end, briefly, Wednesday when a strong cold front moves through. In fact, we'll go from a high of 69 degrees Tuesday, to only a high of 31 degrees Wednesday with a brisk north wind! To top it off, snow showers are possible early Wednesday morning. The cooldown is only temporary as highs warm right back through the 50s and 60s into the beginning of March!  

Snow showers possible followed by temperature plunge

It was another beautiful and remarkably warm day across northern Illinois yesterday. Under mixed sun, the Rockford Airport peaked in the low 60s for the 3rd consecutive day!

Temperatures remain mild to round out the work week, with highs peaking in the upper 40s. But as we've seen with these extremely mild winter stretches, old man winter likes to sneak in a curveball or two to show he's still around.

A backdoor cold front sliding in from the north will help spark up a few rain showers late this afternoon. However, as cooler air spills in, a quick changeover to snow is expected with snow showers lasting into the early stage of Friday night. 

At the same time, winds will be increasing out of the northeast, gusting up to 25 mph at times. This will make visibility somewhat of a concern for those heading home or heading out this evening. Be sure to travel with caution. All in all, accumulations will be minor, sticking only to grassy surfaces. Quickly following the departure of our snow chances will be a decrease in cloud cover, resulting in a temperature plunge into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will land on either side of the 20-degree mark, resulting in a flash freeze. 

High pressure quickly diving in behind today's front will leave us partly cloudy for Saturday. Highs will end up closer to average in the upper 30s. Again, this colder weather pattern is brief as winds look to change back to the south Sunday. 

This will help temperatures climb back into the mid 50s to round out the weekend, with 60s in the works for early next week. Tuesday's warmth will more than likely come with a chance for rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong.

One more warm day but snow showers possible Friday

 

A mild start to the day for most that will only get milder today. A few pockets of rain are showing up on radar South of I-88, but dry air is keeping most of that from reaching the ground. Dew points are in the 20s and 30s while temperatures are in the 30s and 40s. A bit of cloud cover still near and Southeast of a line from Elkhorn to the Quad Cities is keeping temperatures a little bit warmer than areas North and West that are clear early this morning.

Mild weather only continues into the morning and afternoon, with highs getting back into the upper 50s. We will see more clouds early on but some sunshine late will give a quick boost to temperatures, bringing a few spots near the 60° mark again for the 3rd straight day. Rockford has reached that mark both Tuesday and Wednesday and has a shot to get close to that mark again Thursday.

Clear skies later tonight will allow temperatures to fall back near the freezing mark again. Most spots fall into the low 30s. It will also be a bit breezier with winds from the Northwest gusting close to 25 miles per hour, leading to wind chills making things feel a bit cooler in the 20s.

Friday starts out a little cooler, and a cold front sliding through early in the day will only add to the afternoon chill. Along this front, a bit of moisture will bring some pockets of gusty snow showers during the afternoon. Some of the snow may come down a bit heavier at times, dropping visibility briefly. The good news is that the snow will be short-lived, but a coating of snow on elevated surfaces is possible through Friday afternoon.

A few lake-effect snow showers are possible late in the afternoon and evening toward Eastern portions of the viewing area, mainly closer to Chicago and its suburbs. Temperatures will tumble through the afternoon, falling from the 40s early on to the 20s by the late evening. 

Unseasonable warmth early next week could set the stage for some thunderstorms, including severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a large area from Illinois through Missouri into Arkansas and Oklahoma for the potential to see severe weather Tuesday. While there is plenty of time to refine forecasts and timing of this system, be sure to keep tuned to the forecast for any updates in the coming days.

Another mild day today but temperatures drop Friday afternoon following a cold front and spotty snow showers. Saturday brings plenty of sunshine, but highs only reach the upper 30s. Sunday and Monday kicks off the next warm stretch, as Southerly flow brings temperatures back into the 50s and 60s. Tuesday brings chances for thunderstorms before cooler weather returns mid-week.

Showers return for some Wednesday night

 

Despite the cloud cover Wednesday afternoon temperatures were still able to warm to 60 degrees for the second day in a row! The average high for late February should be in the mid-30s, so we are well above that. In fact, month-to-date it is the warmest February on record with an average temperature of 35.3 degrees!

A few light rain showers have been showing up on radar, but with the drier air still in place not much of that is actually reaching the ground. While a sprinkle or two can't be ruled out through the evening, most of the region will remain dry.

A better chance for rain, and even a few thunderstorms, will occur late Wednesday night with the arrival of low pressure. It's possible that some of the stronger storms could produce large hail, and this is why a marginal risk is in place for central and east-central Illinois.

Closer to home the storm threat will remain limited, but a few rumbles can't be ruled out across some of our southern counties. Any shower activity that

develops will be moving east by Noon Thursday, with skies quickly turning partly cloudy into the afternoon. The cold air behind the front lags a bit which means afternoon temperatures Thursday will warm into the mid-50s.

By Friday the colder air (cold for this winter season) will be approaching, and while afternoon highs are likely to reach the mid-40s, a drop in temperatures can be expected by the evening. A few flurries or even a light snow shower can't be ruled

out Friday afternoon and evening.

Second straight 60° day on tap for Wednesday

Compared to 2023, Rockford was able to obtain its first 60° day in a much quicker fashion.

38 days quicker to be exact. What's even more mind-boggling is that we could wind up with a few more 60° day before February comes to a close. Today has a good chance at being one of those days.

 

Partial sunshine and a south to southwesterly wind will allow temperatures to warm to their full potential once again, landing in the low 60s. 

All in all, it will be another great February afternoon for outdoor or even ice cream enthusiasts. Believe it or not, I brought out the shorts as well as took a family trip to Dairyhaus in Rockton! As a weak cold front enters the equation, cloud cover will gather up this evening into tonight. Not too far behind will be our next chance for showers. 

Forecast models have been very consistent with this weak disturbance, leaving the heavier rainfall totals south and east of the Stateline. However, an isolated shower or two is possible into mid-morning. 

Quickly following the departure of tomorrow's weak disturbance will be a decrease in cloud cover. Winds behind the associated cold front will turn to the north and northeast, bringing down high temperatures for the second half of the week. 

High won't fall much for Thursday, landing in the low to mid 50s. It's Friday and Saturday where we will actually see a big difference in temperatures as highs will be limited to the low 40s. 

In a similar fashion to last week, this week's cool down is brief. Southwest flow returns late Saturday and last into next week, allowing highs to climb back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday. One thing to keep in mind with next week's warmth is that it may come with the chance for rain and even thunder.

60-degree warmth takes over Tuesday

 

The air Tuesday had a spring-like feel to it as high temperatures warmed into the upper 50s and low 60s. Rockford's high temperature reached 60 degrees, the first time since last November when the high reached 66 degrees. To put this warmth into perspective, the average high for late February should be in the mid-30s. And it looks like we've got at least a few more 60-degree days before the month is up.

On average, our first 60-degree day usually occurs during the first week, to week and a half, of March, but has occurred as early as January 4th,1997, and as last as April 7th,1970. Last year, the first 60-degree (or above) day occurred on March 31st. The high that day made it to 70 degrees which helped fuel severe weather across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Numerous tornadoes occurred that evening, one of which was an EF 1 that moved from Davis Junction to Belvidere, injuring 40 and killing one. At that time, it was the third largest tornado outbreak in the U.S., with 22 tornadoes occurring in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana.

Temperatures Wednesday are likely to warm back near 60 degrees, but increasing cloud cover during the afternoon may limit that climb just a bit. Regardless, afternoon highs will once again warm well above average and can be expected to continue through the weekend.

What time is today's sunrise and sunset?

I've got some good news friends! The countdown to the spring equinox is down to 4 weeks (March 19th). And with that comes earlier sunrises.

This morning's sunrise time is 6:46AM.
 

 

 

Sunset times continue to inch away from 5:30PM. 

This evening's sunset time is 5:34PM.

All in all, today features roughly 10 hours and 48 minutes of daylight. 

We'll continue to slowly gain daylight until the day of the summer solstice which is Thursday, June 20th. 

When could Rockford see its first 60-degree day?

Presidents' Day marked the 5th time this month and 11th time this winter that the Rockford Airport came in with a high at or above 50°.

National love your pet day will be no different, just a tad bit breezier. The combination of mixed sunshine along with today's southwest breeze will help highs peak in the low to mid 50s. In my opinion, a great afternoon to take your four-legged friend to the dog park or on an elongated walk. 

Skies remain partly cloudy overnight, with overnight lows dipping into the mid 30s. In a similar fashion to today, Wednesday's warmer start is going to provide a nice base for a warmer afternoon. 

Expect highs to creep closer to the 60° mark. Despite clouds gradually increasing throughout the day, our radar will stay quiet from start to finish. 

 

A cold front diving into the region my bring a shower chance late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will also bring a wind shift to round out the work week, with winds coming off of Lake Michigan.

Friday and Saturday feature highs in the 40s. But as we saw last week, this upcoming "cool down" won't last long as southerly to southwesterly flow aims to take control by the end of the weekend. 

This will allow another surge of warmth to take place, one that could potentially bring Rockford it's first 60°of the year and our first since November 14th. If you recall, our warmest high this year is 59° back on February 8th. On average, Rockford see it's first 60° day on March 10th. So if we do manage to hit 60° either tomorrow or next Monday, it would come a little bit ahead of schedule.

Limited rain chances this week

 

It was just a few days ago when Rockford recorded 0.24 inches of rain, with dry skies to follow. And while it looks like we could see a small chance for rain return later this week, the better chances appear to remain south across central Illinois.

A weak low-pressure system will pass through southern Illinois Monday night and Tuesday, bringing with it only a slight increase in cloud cover. A very dry air mass - as indicated by dew point temperatures in the teens and low 20s - will limit any precipitation that tries to fall from reaching the surface.

Once the clouds clear Tuesday afternoon temperatures will warm back into the 50s, making it the 12th time Rockford has recorded a high temperature of 50 degrees, or higher, so far this winter season. And the warmth won't end there. Wednesday and Thursday will also feature afternoon highs in the 50s.

A slightly stronger low-pressure system will develop out west and move east Wednesday and Thursday. But it looks like the bulk of the precipitation associated with this low will remain to the south. While a light shower or two can't be ruled out with a slight return in moisture Wednesday night, the majority of the Stateline appears to miss out on the steadier, and heavier, rain through Thursday afternoon.

Following the low a slightly cooler air mass settles in with temperatures falling to the 40s, but still remaining above average, Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, afternoon highs will warm back into the 50s, with the upper 50s possible next Monday. A better chance for rain appears to return next week, with the possibility of thunderstorms.

Warm Presidents' Day, multiple 50° days ahead

Old man winter paid a brief visit and when I mean brief, I mean just for the weekend. 

Conditions went from sub-zero wind chills Saturday morning to highs in the upper 40s Sunday. That spike in temperatures is expected to not only carry on into Presidents' Day, but also into the end of February. 

The holiday does begin with quite the chill as most of our locales are sitting in the teens. If you do have to be out and about, bundle up. Sunshine along with a south-southwesterly wind will result in roughly 30° temperature climb, landing most in the upper 40s. A light warm breeze lingers into the early stages of Tuesday, leaving overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s by daybreak. 

As of this morning, Rockford's total number of 50° days since February 1st stands at 4. We can expect to add a few more to that tally as winds remain breezy out of the south-southwest. 

Expect highs to land in the low 50s Tuesday afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Believe it or not, our forecast high of 52° isn't record warmth. Back in 2017, the Stateline saw a 6-day stretch of historical warmth as highs at the Rockford Airport soared into the upper 60s and low 70s. 

Low pressure diving to our south will bring a bit more cloud cover to the area Wednesday night. With this cloud cover could come a shower or two. Otherwise, we in for even warmer temperatures Wednesday as highs are slated to peak in the upper 50s.

Despite a cold front Thursday morning, highs will once again peak in the low 50s. In a similar fashion to last week, it's not until Friday and Saturday where we see a huge difference in temperatures. The cooler air associated with Thursday's cold front finally filters into the Great Lakes, bringing us down into the low 40s for both days. However, southwest winds take over by Sunday afternoon, allowing highs to climb back into the low 50s. 

For those who are a huge fan of this forecast, long range outlook provide even better news showcasing a high chance for above average temperatures into meteorological spring. 

Meteorological spring begins March 1st!