Warm & Humid Today, Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

Good morning! Hopefully everyone is having a wonderful start to their Tuesday.

That same high pressure that we talked yesterday will continue to keep things dry for the most part today. It has shifted a little bit to the east which means winds at the surface will be from the southeast. This will cause dew point temperatures to creep back into the mid 60’s by this afternoon so it will feel slightly more humid today than it was yesterday. Good news however, the heat index values should remain in check through the day. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 80’s. And with plenty of sunshine in the forecast, it is very important to make sure that you protect your skin from the suns rays as much as possible. The UV index once again at a 9 today. That scale is out of 11. So make sure to bring protection or slather on the sunscreen if you have any outdoor plans this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center for today has a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) for severe weather for he western portion of the viewing area. A warm front will lift through the region bringing a chance for isolated thunderstorms this evening, but a better chance overnight. The main hazards with these storms will be heavy downpours, damaging wind gusts, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. This will likely stretch into tomorrow morning which could make for a wet morning commute. So be sure to set the umbrella out tonight before heading to bed.

The best chance for thunderstorms, including some strong to severe, will be tomorrow afternoon. The same low pressure is forecast to track to the north of the region, swinging in a cold front in the process. The placement and timing of this cold front will be the key in severe whether or not we will see severe weather.

If the cold front is slow to enter the region, that will allow more time for the developing storms to tap into instability or the energy in the atmosphere during peak heating hours (12PM - 4PM). If the cold front sweeps through the region quickly, the window will be much smaller for storms to develop and rapidly intensify.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire region under a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow. Severe threats will evolve as storms develop. Southwest flow at the surface will help warm up temperature yet again into the upper 80s. Initially, single-cell thunderstorms could pose a large hail and even an isolated tornado threat. As we progress further into the afternoon, storms look to congeal into clusters, which means damaging winds and heavy rain would become the bigger concern.