It's no lie when I say that it has been a long hot summer for the Rockford area so far. Since the start of meteorological spring which was back on June 1st, the Rockford Airport has seen an average temperature of 74.9°, and an average high of 86.4°.
Taking a look at the record books, that sits as the 7th warmest on record for both categories. Although we have been comfortable the past 2 days with highs in the low 80s, this afternoon is going to be end up slightly warmer.
Similar to Monday morning, our day was off to a pleasantly cool start, as temperatures dropped into the low to mid 60s. If you were set on leaving early this morning, the humidity was also not an issue as dew points were also comfortable in the low 60s. Highs this afternoon will end up a few degrees above average, in the upper 80s. Thanks to a decent breeze out of the south, it's also going to feel a bit muggy at times as dew points are
forecast to be in the middle and upper 60s. Wind gusts at times could gust upwards of 20 mph. Nothing too crazy. Despite an increase in cloud cover, the rest of the day remains thanks to high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
A surging cold front will be the culprit behind our next rain chances which arrives tonight, with a second chance arriving by Wednesday afternoon.. The first round of shower and thunderstorm activity holds off until early morning hours of Wednesday. Ahead of this cold front, a cluster of thunderstorms is
forecast to be ongoing across Iowa and Wisconsin. Model runs this morning are in agreement, showing this complex of thunderstorms weakening as they track into the region. Regardless, the threat for at least a few scattered
showers and thunderstorms seems pretty high during the early morning hours.
The second chance which does present an opportunity for more organized storm activity late in the
day Wednesday as the same cold front pushes through the Stateline. That cold
front will provide enough lift in the atmosphere to spark a few scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. As of the most recent Day 2 severe outlook, The Storm
Prediction Center highlighting our area with a "marginal" risk for
severe weather. In the categories for severe weather, that is level 1 of 5, as any thunderstorm that does meet severe criteria will have the capability of producing strong winds and large hail. Both chances won't bring a total washout to the Stateline. In fact, these isolated chances do give way to dry conditions on Thursday as high pressure follows the cold frontal passage.
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