Strong Winds, Heavy Rainfall Biggest Concerns with T-Storm Chances Later Today

The Stateline woke up to a little more cloud cover this morning, but that just made for a beautiful and colorful sunrise to kick off this Tuesday. As that popular saying goes, red sky in the morning, sailors take warning". This mornings dry start will eventually lead to increasing chances for thunderstorms, and they do come with a low end severe risk.

If you are heading out the door this morning, temperatures are starting out in the mid to upper 60s for most. So temperature-wise, we're comfortable. But the air may feel a bit "sticky" in a few spots, as dew points sat in the mid to upper 60s. Aside from a stray shower, the Stateline may escape the rest of morning without needing the rain gear. But if you're going to be heading home from work later today, that's the time to have the umbrella on hand.

Throughout the morning, a warm front is going to be lifting northward, and should pass through the region by early this afternoon. This will place us under the area of a low pressure system known as the "warm sector", which is the area between the warm front and the cold front. Surface winds in this area will shift to the southeast, allowing a vast amount of atmospheric moisture to filter in. That's why it might feel slightly more humid through the second half of the day, as dew points climb into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s in a few spots.

Ahead of the associated cold front, thunderstorms will likely develop around 2-3 this afternoon, with chances continuing till about 7-8 evening. There may be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering shortly after the cold front passage through, but all chances should drastically decrease after midnight. Models this morning show the "brunt" of this event remaining south of I-88. As far as rainfall totals, amounts for most should end up below or at a quarter of an inch. Underneath the heavier thunderstorms, a quick .5" to 1" could fall in a short amount of time. If this happens, it could lead to very localized flash flooding.

Now, there is a low-end severe risk with the thunderstorm activity later today. Overnight, The Storm Prediction Center did expand the marginal risk to include the entire viewing area. If any thunderstorm does enter the severe criteria, it will be capable of producing strong winds, and small-sized hail. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief spin up or two will reside closer to the surface low in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. And because of how much atmospheric moisture will be available, heavy rain is also a possibility. Once the cold front passes through, we'll remain mostly cloudy into the early hours of our day tomorrow. But skies will gradually clear throughout the day leading to some afternoon sunshine.