Strong to Severe Storms Possible Later Today, High Winds & Heavy Rainfall Biggest Concerns

It's been a long hot stretch for the Stateline since the beginning of meteorological summer. In fact, yesterday's high of 94° made for the 14th 90-degree day of the year, which is now more than double what we had at this point last year. For those like me who want a much needed break from this hot and humid stretch, you'll have to wait one more day. Conditions will remain hot and humid this afternoon, with another chance for thunderstorms set for this evening. This time, these thunderstorm chances do come with a risk for severe weather.

Our Thursday was off to a warm and humid start, with both temperatures and dew points in the upper 60s-low 70s. This definitely brought a "soupy" like feel to the air for those who had to head out the door early today. The air will feel no different by this afternoon, as temperatures rise into the low 90s for the seventh straight day. This is all ahead of this afternoon and evening's thunderstorm chances, some of which could be on the stronger to severe side. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the entire viewing area still under a SLIGHT RISK (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Any thunderstorm that does meet severe criteria will pose a threat for high winds and heavy rainfall.

Models have been consistent all morning on showing a batch of isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up between 3-6PM. Initially, storms that do manage to develop are going to be single-cell, but as the afternoon and evening progresses storms take on a linear nature by 6 PM. Typically with a strong line of storms, or what we call a Mesoscale Convective System (M.C.S), your main concerns are going to be high winds and heavy rainfall. There may be a low-end threat for small hail with the initial activity. But once the storm mode goes linear, that's when the strong winds aloft will make their way down to the surface, leading to a threat for damaging wind gusts.

The main time frame to be weather ready will be 6PM-12PM. Once the cold front passes through overnight, we should see conditions slowly quiet down into our Friday morning. By the end of this severe event, this will bring some MUCH needed rainfall to the Stateline, bringing most of our locations between .5" to 1" of rainfall. A few localized areas may wind up with 1.25". Trust me, there is plenty of atmospheric moisture available for these storms to produce high rates of rainfall. Something similar to what we saw during the afternoon yesterday, as storms we quick to pop-up, and were quick to produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy skies Friday morning will gradually give way to some afternoon sunshine. Thanks to the cold front that passes through overnight, our streak of 90° highs come to a close as highs only top our in the upper 80s.