Weather-wise, it couldn't get any better than what the Stateline witnessed over the last 3 days. Warmer starts have led to unseasonably mild afternoons, with highs feeling more like early-spring than late-winter. But as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end as a cold front Wednesday evening has brought a big shift in our weather pattern for Thursday.
Behind yesterday's frontal passage, our surface winds shifted to the north, allowing a colder air-mass to filter into the Stateline. Temperatures early Thursday are sitting in the mid to upper 20s, landing a few degrees lower than previous mornings. This cooler start will spell a MUCH cooler day overall as highs peak in the upper 30s under a mostly cloudy sky.
Guidance continued to show a little moisture streaming in above the surface, which may lead to a passing flurry or two. But with plenty of low-level dry air and dew points in the single-digits to lower teens, it may be hard for any chance of precipitation to reach the surface. Similar to last night, skies remain mostly cloudy tonight, with temperatures falling to seasonable levels by Friday morning.
Saturday's Storm Potential:
Our weather pattern then turns a bit more active as we head into the weekend. Following a relatively quiet and warmer Friday, a potent storm system over the Midsection of the U.S is expected to bring rain and storm chances late-Saturday. Most of Saturday looks to remain dry, with our best chance for precipitation arriving by Saturday evening and Saturday night. Showers are extremely likely during that time, and the chances for a few rumbles of thunder and heavy downpours are still very much in the conversation..
Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of Iowa under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. This is where the best forcing will be as the surface low as the surface low itself will be tracking into the southwestern and western Iowa.
On the outskirts of the Slight Risk, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in place which does cover a good chunk of the Stateline. This is for areas along and west of I-39, with gusty winds and even small hail in some
of the stronger storms. Similar to how we conduct a forecast for winter weather, the forecast is subject to change as we're still roughly 48 hours away from the event. But this is a good time to catch up on your severe weather safety plan. Or better yet, introduce one if one isn't in place.
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