As we inch closer to the conclusion of March, we've seen quite the opportunities for some much-needed rainfall throughout the month. So far, the Rockford International Airport has accumulated 2.03" of rain since March 1st, landing near average. However, we still have another rain event or two before we erase the yearly rainfall deficit. Well, the good news is that one of those rain events is slated to begin late today, with the heaviest rain arriving Wednesday.
Ahead of a lifting warm front, highs this afternoon will only reach the lower 40s under a mostly cloudy sky. However, it is because of this frontal boundary that our atmosphere sees a surge of moisture into Tuesday night, resulting in a chance for a few late-day showers. As moisture continues to increase overnight, rain will become more likely and widespread in nature. Lows briefly dip into the upper 30s early in the night before climbing into the mid to upper 40s by sunrise Wednesday.
Wednesday is looking more than likely the day where you'll need the rain gear. Guidance continues to keep the likelihood for widespread rain, along with the potential for a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms as the cold front enters the region. With that being said, severe weather is highly unlikely. Temperatures ahead of the surging cold front will peak in the lower 60s before tumbling into the upper 30s overnight. On the backside of the surface low, cooler air will filter in, allowing for a chance for mixed precipitation during the early stages of Thursday.
How Much Rainfall?
While it's safe to say that snowfall accumulations are unlikely across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, we do end up seeing a healthy amount of rainfall over the next 3 days. Forecast models this morning came in with precipitation totals between .75" to as high as 1.5". As I mentioned before, this would greatly help put a big dent or event eliminate our yearly rainfall deficit and also help out with the current drought situation. Conditions then look to dry out for Friday, with highs climbing back into mid 40s.
Severe Returns to the South:
Similar to last week, the deep south states will once again be the center or focal point for a significant severe weather event on Wednesday. Earlier this morning, The Storm Prediction Center placed portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama under a massive moderate risk (level 4 of 5) for severe weather.
Storm mode for the most part looks to be linear, meaning the chance for discrete storms during this event is very low. However, this line of strong storms will bring the potential for damaging winds up to 75 mph and a few strong tornadoes (EF-2+). If you know anyone that live in these areas, please make sure that they are updated on the forecast as well as have their safe place ready to go.
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