Rain and thunderstorm chances return by the weekend

As we close out the books on Meteorological Winter and begin Meteorological Spring, the weather around the Stateline definitely felt more spring-like Tuesday afternoon.  Back to back 50 degree days Monday and Tuesday could be met with another 50 degree day Wednesday before temperatures drop back by the end of the week.

There has been a gradual increase in cloud cover Tuesday evening, and those clouds are expected to

further increase through the night.  A cold front passing through the Midwest earlier in the day will begin to be pulled back north as a warm front Wednesday morning.  High temperatures Wednesday will likely reach 50 degrees, but then are expected to fall back even further behind yet another cold front Wednesday night and Thursday.  A few sprinkles or a quick passing shower are possible Wednesday afternoon, with a few flurries into Thursday.

A stronger storm system will move in towards the end of the week, pulling the cold front back north as a warm front Friday night.  Behind the warm front lies quite a bit of warmth as temperatures Saturday *could* come closer to 60 degrees during the afternoon.  But with that warmth also comes an increase in moisture.  Very high levels of moisture for the beginning of March are forecast to be in place Friday night and Saturday afternoon.  As low pressure nears the Stateline from the west, scattered rain showers will develop late Friday night, continuing into Saturday afternoon and evening.  Heavier rainfall, with even the risk of thunderstorms, will also be possible as both a vigorous upper level and surface low move across the Midwest.  By Saturday night/early Sunday a cold front will have moved through, but temperatures for Sunday won't fall immediately behind the front.  Scattered showers will also be possible for Sunday afternoon, followed by another low that looks to move in late Sunday night and Monday.  Depending on the track of this low, a little more wintry weather may occur.

The increase in moisture, warmth and overall instability Saturday could lead to the potential for strong/severe storms over parts of Iowa during the afternoon and evening, with an elevated risk for damaging winds.  Right now areas west of the Mississippi River need to monitor the potential for severe weather for the weekend.  Locally, our risk remains low but the timing of the cold front will determine if we could see a few stronger storms Saturday night.  Localized flooding may become a concern if the heavier rain showers do occur Saturday night.