Monday, December 19, 2022

Few Flurries Late, Significant Storm to Bring Impacts Prior to Christmas

Cloudy Streak Ends:

Well folks, it sure was a beautiful sight to see. That big bright object in the sky known as the sun finally made an appearance after a long cloudy streak. Prior to yesterday's sunshine, the Rockford International Airport hasn't seen it's average cloud cover value register below 70% since December 4th. Doing the math, that is a LONG 14 day stretch. So all in all, the sunshine was MUCH-NEEDED to the highest degree. 

Few Flurries Late:

The Stateline may manage to sneak in a few peeks of sunshine during the early stages of the day. However, clouds will be quick to move back in as a disturbance approaches from the west. Along with the increase in cloud cover does come the low potential for a few late-day flurries. 

I say late-day because the incoming moisture will have a bit of dry air to fight off before we see any snowflakes make it to the ground. Accumulations, if any, won't amount to more than a half inch. Slightly higher accumulations can be expected the further north you go into Wisconsin. Thanks to a bit more breakage in the clouds and a southwest shift in our winds, Tuesday is going to end up being the "warmest" day of the week. The combination of both will get most spots back in the upper 20s, with a spot or two briefly touching the 30° mark.  

Late-Week Winter Storm:

Now, lets dive into this week's biggest weather headline, the upcoming winter storm. Here's what we know as of this morning. With a bitterly cold air-mass already in place across N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin, snow will be the primary type of precipitation. Impacts locally will be high, both because of the accumulating snow potential and the likelihood for strong winds. 

What remains in question of course with this event being a few days away is the precise location of the storms track and snowfall amounts. That will be fine-tuned as we inch closer to the event itself. But for right now, the best thing to do is to not pay attention to any click-bait posts on social media. Instead, take this time to prepare. 

Light snow aims to begin Wednesday night, with snow becoming more widespread and likely during the entire day Thursday. As the low inches closer to the region, winds will heighten the likelihood for impacts Thursday night into Friday. If this scenario were to play out, the mention of "near white-out" conditions will be on the table. 

This would the time frame in which travel impacts will be there highest. Again, adjustments and wobbles in the forecast are likely leading up to the event.Snow then could continue into the first half of Friday before coming to a close during the afternoon. Again, adjustments and wobbles in the forecast are likely leading up to the event.

How to Prepare:

The best thing to do right now as we await the finer details is to prepare. To do that, make sure to...

1. Monitor the forecast

2. Stock up on supplies

3. Adjust travel plans if necessary

Extremely Cold Christmas:

Now, the component of the forecast that has been consistent the is likelihood for an Arctic blast following the departure of this system. High temperatures both Friday and Saturday are going to struggle to make it out of  single digits. 

Overnight lows will end up even colder, likely falling below the 0-degree mark both Friday night and Christmas Eve night. For Santa Clause himself, he's used to these kind of numbers being from the north pole and all. But for us, it's going to be very important to avoid being outside for a prolonged period of time. Especially since we may be talking wind chill values will be flirting with Wind Chill Advisory or even Wind Chill Warning criteria.

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