Monday, December 19, 2022

Potentially dangerous late week winter storm

 


A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin beginning late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, lasting through late Friday evening. A major winter storm is expected to impact the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes by the end of the week.

Before that, light snow has been moving in from the west Monday evening. This is tied to an upper-level disturbance and cold front that'll sweep across the region Tuesday morning. Dry air initially will limit any snowfall through the early evening, but flurries and light snow showers are expected to fall late evening and overnight. Any accumulations will be light, only expecting a dusting, but with air temperatures in the low 20s the snow will stick when it falls. Slick conditions are possible through Tuesday morning.

All eyes will then turn towards the likely winter storm expected to impact the Stateline Thursday and Friday, with extreme cold lasting into the holiday weekend. Low pressure developing near the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma will lift to the northeast Thursday, quickly strengthening as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. It's the quick strengthening of the low that will cause winds to rapidly increase Thursday night and Friday morning. While the overall track of the low is likely to change over the next couple of days, it is extremely important to pay attention to the forecast as impacts to travel are certain before the holiday weekend.

As it looks Monday evening: snow will quickly develop during the day Thursday with conditions rapidly deteriorating by Thursday evening/night. During this time blizzard-like conditions are possible, lasting into Friday morning as winds are expected to gust as high as 55 mph from the west. This would cause white-out conditions and make travel very dangerous (even if only a little snow ends up falling). If you are out traveling and end up getting stuck or stranded, the wind and cold could even be life-threatening. Power outages are also possible due to the strong winds and weighted tree branches from the snow. 

The snow will last through mid-day Friday, but the strong winds will continue into Saturday causing blowing and drifting snow to remain a concern during that time. Temperatures Thursday are expected to rise into the upper 20s, but then rapidly drop Thursday night into the single digits, to near zero degrees. Wind chills during that time could fall as low as -30 degrees! The bitterly cold wind chills will last through the weekend as high temperatures struggle to make it much above ten degrees, and lows fall below zero. Winds will ease some on Christmas Day, but it'll still remain very cold! It'll likely be one of the coldest Christmas Days we've felt in years. 

If you have any travel plans during this time, now is the time to start thinking about altering or even postponing travel as road conditions would quickly deteriorate making travel impossible in some locations. While it is not yet exactly known where the greatest impacts will be felt (regarding snow totals, highest wind speeds) across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, we have high confidence in the dangerous cold and strong winds that'll impact the area. It's very important to make sure you're not only remaining updated on the forecast this week but taking time to make the necessary preparations for your home and vehicle. Now is the time to prepare. We will continue to keep you updated throughout the week, so make sure to keep checking back.    

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