Uncertainty #1 with today's severe weather threat is already becoming apparent this morning. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is pushing into portions of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
How long this activity holds together - and how the atmosphere recovers behind it - will play a major role in the Stateline's severe weather potential later today. IF storms linger, they could limit instability, and the added cloud cover and rain may slow the northward push of the warm front. This could ultimately temper with the strength and coverage of severe storms this afternoon and evening. With that being said, today will be a "play it by ear" kind of day. Meaning, we have to monitor and see how things go as the day progresses.
Heavy downpours is certainly on the table, especially with the batch of storms expected to move through this morning. IF the warm front is able to lift north into the I-88 corridor, all severe weather hazards, including a few tornadoes, would become possible, especially along and south of the front where the ingredients for severe weather is much higher. Even areas north of the warm front could still see severe weather, though the primary threat would lean more towards damaging straight-line winds.
In the latest outlook, the Storm Prediction Center left much of the region under a level 2 of 5 Slight risk for scattered severe storms with locations along and south of I-88 under a level 3 enhanced risk. Further south, a level 4 of 5 Moderate risk remains in place for those across central Illinois and eastern Indiana.
MyStateline+ App:
Be sure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings throughout the day. Have alerts enabled on your cell phone, NOAA weather radio, and make sure to have the MyStateline+ App downloaded to stay up to date with live coverage.
Cool Thursday:
Behind today's frontal passage, conditions become less active but cooler for Thursday. With a steady west-northwest breeze in place, afternoon highs will be limited to the low 70s once again.





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