The showers and thunderstorms from this morning have really kept our atmosphere cool and stable. Current temperatures (as of 1pm) are in the mid and upper 50s with a brisk southeast wind. The storm complex from the morning developed a little further south and has pushed the system's warm front down into central and southern Illinois. While there will likely be some shift in the front to the north it'll more than likely remain in central Illinois, and this is where the highest threat for the more significant severe weather looks to remain.
Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center shifted both the 'enhanced risk' (level 3/5) and 'moderate risk' (level 4/5) southward a bit. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin remain within a 'slight risk' (level 2/5) for the rest of the afternoon and evening.
So, what does this all mean for our weather going forward? We'll continue to see a few scattered showers throughout the afternoon as temperatures are likely to creep back into the 60s. There is some clearing taking place over Iowa with the cloud cover and this is slowly starting to allow some instability to build back north into southern Iowa. As the system's cold front and low pressure move east, we will likely see some higher instability develop along the Mississippi River and into parts of northern Illinois through early afternoon. This will keep at least an isolated severe risk going through about 8pm/9pm locally until the cold front passes. The main hazards with any storm that would turn severe would be primarily wind.
Our window for the next round of thunderstorms we'll need to keep an eye on will be from roughly 5pm/6pm through 8pm/9pm.
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